2024 NFL Record Predictions
Credit: Los Angeles Times
The NFL season is upon us as preseason wrapped up Sunday night. With less than two weeks until NFL Kickoff, why not start off the football season with Ceiling and Floor predictions for every team, giving an unbiased review for all teams.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 11-6
The only thing holding this team back is the lack of quality in receivers. KC addressed this need in the offseason by acquiring speedsters Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Despite dropping many passes last season, they still won the Super Bowl. With the defense improving under Steve Spagnuolo and Patrick Mahomes leading the offense, the Chiefs start off as the number one team on this list.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 10-7
The addition of Derrick Henry boosts the entire offense, including Lamar Jackson. Henry’s presence pre-snap is significant, and his size adds a new dimension to the Ravens’ offense. The RPO play call will be exciting for Ravens fans. The floor of 10 wins is if the defense falls off without Mike Macdonald.
3. Houston Texans
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 10-7
Houston is expected to make a strong run this year. The offseason moves set them up for success, with Stroud leading an offense capable of putting up big numbers. However, their lack of playoff experience compared to other top teams is a concern. On paper, they have everything needed for a Super Bowl run, but experience is the missing piece.
4. Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
The Lions are set for another successful season and a playoff appearance. They have locked up long-term deals and are poised to compete for years. The main challenge will be handling the mental pressure of being a top contender. Despite a tougher schedule, if they perform well, they could represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
5. San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 10-7
The 49ers might experience a Super Bowl hangover and start the year struggling. Media drama and contract issues could be distractions. If Shanahan and his team can focus on the work and block out the noise, they should have another strong season. Let Purdy and his guys do their job, and the Niners will be fine.
6. Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 10-7
New contracts can elevate star players, especially quarterbacks. Despite being a bold take, the Packers have a young receiving core gaining valuable playoff experience. Jordan Love and Lafleur will aim for a Super Bowl push. The moderate schedule is favorable, but the defense’s performance under a new coordinator is a question mark.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 10-7
The Eagles’ strength of schedule is the main reason they aren’t ranked higher. They have a strong roster but face tough away games against Baltimore, the LA Rams, and Cincinnati. The offseason acquisitions of Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson show they mean business. Keep an eye on them as potential early-season contenders.
8. Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 10-7
Buffalo tends to start slow but must come out strong with the 31st ranked schedule. Adding Curtis Samuel will help Josh Allen avoid downfield throwaway picks. Drafting Keon Coleman is a long-term investment. The defense is usually solid despite injuries. The key is Allen taking care of the ball and not forcing plays.
9. Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 9-8
The Bears have undergone a rebuild similar to Detroit, drafting their guy instead of trading for him. The offensive unit improved significantly this offseason. Acquiring Keenan Allen and drafting Romeo Doubs supports their WR3 position. Winning seven games last year, they are poised to exceed expectations this season.
10. Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The surprise team that somehow surprises everyone every season. LA holds the 21st ranked schedule, but that doesn’t mean anything to Sean McVay and his team. This team knows how to draft and win close games. Although they no longer have Aaron Donald, drafting Jared Verse in the first round will bring an effective alternative for pass rushing. The receivers are no joke when it comes to Stafford and LA, with similarities to Green Bay. The Rams are a disciplined team and will give 120% each down. Don’t be surprised if this team cracks the top 7 come late December.
11. Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 9-8
The elephant in the room is that Miami is only as good as their defense. We’ve seen this team at full potential, and it is a scary sight when all units are on the same page. A new coordinator shaping up his unit into what will hopefully be a turnaround season for the defense is a tough task but manageable. Tua and his guys can’t be the only ones putting in work for the Dolphins; they need as much help from the defense as possible. This team can score 40 points one week and 9 points the next, making their future intriguing.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 9-8
Not much to say for this team as we know Tomlin has never had a losing season with the Steelers. With the addition of two new QBs, the Steelers’ QB room hasn’t been this good in a while. Dangeruss and Justin Fields can elevate this team even with poor play from past seasons. This team went above .500 and made the playoffs with Kenny Pickett at the helm. Najee Harris was inconsistent as a runner last season despite recording 1,000 yards. Pittsburgh knows how to run the ball well. What makes the Steelers enter the top 10 is getting the ball out of Russ’s hands into a playmaking receiver. Pickens is the guy, but if he is covered by an above-average cornerback, who’s next to step up?
13. Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
Regardless of the questions at running back and offensive line, Joe Burrow coming back from a second season-ending injury should be the main focus. A healthy Burrow, Chase, and Higgins form a complete trio, but only if they are all on the field. The Bengals’ defense ranked 31st last season and made no big splashes this offseason. The offense can stand a chance against teams like Kansas City and Philadelphia, but if the defense doesn’t adjust early, it could get ugly quickly.
14. Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 7-10
The pressure is on for Cowboy nation. Mike McCarthy is on the hottest seat in the league, and Dak is facing one of his biggest seasons. With a mildly difficult schedule against Detroit, Baltimore, Houston, and San Francisco, the Cowboys need to perform. If they disappoint this year, expect a complete rebuild in 2025. The loss of Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. is significant. Quinn transformed the defense, but now he’s in Washington. Will this be another 10+ win season ending in a first-round choke, or McCarthy’s final season in Dallas? They need to decide early as they are about to be passed by much-improved teams.
15. Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 8-9
I’m not sold on Cleveland because something always happens to them no matter how well they perform. Their roster is well-balanced, and they could win over 10 games. But with a difficult schedule and banged-up players, I don’t foresee the Browns making noise in January. In a tough division, the vibes for this team seem more disappointing than exciting. Paying your QB $230 million without a serious plan is like a deer in headlights. Jerry Jeudy is a good addition, but with a tough schedule, it’s hard to see this team competing for more than a playoff spot.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 7-10
This Jaguars team is not the same as we’ve been used to seeing. Although they had a midseason collapse, starting 8-3 and finishing 9-8, the Jags are legit and got humbled last year. Doug Pederson has the coaching knowledge to lead his team to the playoffs, but coaches can only do so much from the sidelines. Jacksonville is talented enough to stay in games, but will they get over the hump and push to be back in the AFC championship? The floor of 7-10 is if they have another midseason collapse, which is possible with a tough schedule.
17. New York Jets
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
New York is a middle-pack team that I don’t see getting over the mediocrity hump. Robert Saleh is on a hot seat, and Rodgers has pressure to stay healthy and lead this team to the playoffs. The Jets won games without Rodgers last season, so they shouldn’t be overlooked. Garrett Wilson looks poised for his best year, and the elite defense is ready for another tough schedule. The false hope is locker room problems that can lead to on-field issues. The chemistry is strange but congruent. The return of Rodgers will impact the team, and it’s only a matter of time until we see how they react to having him on the field for longer than a possession.
18. Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
Don’t be fooled early, but don’t sleep on this team. Atlanta made some low-key good signings in the offseason and are still making splashes, signing Justin Simmons on August 18th. Although criticized for taking Michael Penix in the first round, they’re loading up for the future. Kirk is their franchise guy for now and the bridge QB for Penix. If Atlanta could compete last year with Desmond Ridder at QB, my guess is that if they’re healthy, this group could be a dark horse playoff team.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 8-9
Tampa Bay will be competitive all season long. My prediction is they will have the closest score margin at the end of the season. This team didn’t inflate their heads by getting a big star free agent. They worked internally by getting a new offensive coordinator, which can make or break the offense. Baker Mayfield seems more settled in Tampa Bay than in Cleveland, and it shows. The confidence he brought to games last season is just a preview of what he could bring this season.
20. Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 7-10
With the return of Anthony Richardson and a varied draft class, Indy will enter the season with one of the easiest schedules of 2024. Almost making the playoffs last year with their backup and first-year head coach, this team could surprise in the AFC South. The division often sleeps on the Colts, who are consistently fighting for a division title. Although Houston is favored to win the division, don’t be shocked if the Colts make a run for it, as no one expects much from the youngest team in the league.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 6-11
There isn’t much to convince me to rank this team higher than 21. The Chargers always find a way to keep games close, especially with new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The true talent of the roster is questionable. If this team wins 10+ games, will they see themselves as serious playoff contenders? They nailed every need in the draft and found some diamonds in the rough. If they handle their last-place schedule and win important games, Harbaugh and L.A. could come in behind KC in the division and potentially get a Wild Card spot.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 5-12
You have to feel for the Vikings organization and fans. No team has had a more heartbreaking and unlucky offseason. The fuel on the field will be seen and felt by viewers. Although they didn’t massively improve from last year, this is still a 13-win team from two years ago with the same head coach. Kevin O’Connell is a dawg and will coach his guys to not give up. Despite the fall of JJ McCarthy, Sam Darnold looks like he will get his third chance to step up. Minnesota has no playoff expectations from most, but all this team needs is a spark to find themselves in the playoff hunt come December.
23. Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
Whether it’s Geno Smith or Sam Howell, the Seahawks have the roster and coaching staff to compete in the NFC West. Seattle is always a threat in the playoff hunt in late November and early December. Mike MacDonald, entering his first year as head coach, will bring excitement for Seahawk fans. The real worry is whether this team will be the same later in the season. Having Howell is a big upgrade over Drew Lock, and I am a strong Howell believer. If the Seahawks flop this year under MacDonald, expect a serious offseason improvement and a return to the top 15 soon.
24. Washington Commanders
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 4-13
Jumping from one of the worst teams last season to almost cracking the top 20 might seem like a bad take, but this Commanders team is entirely different. Rookie Jayden Daniels has a lot of media pressure, but he’s entering the best situation any rookie QB could. Washington stocked up in free agency and the draft, looking like actual threats to division leaders. There isn’t much expectation from this team, so my ceiling prediction is bold. This team had a similar offseason to the Texans last year. Performance is better when not expected, and Washington has everything they could want.
25. New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 5-12
New Orleans has been a strange team since the post-Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. This team is like predicting the weather in Texas; it switches from day to day. Derek Carr hasn’t been the elite QB he once was since the Raiders were in Oakland. He is now 33, with potential rookie QB Spencer Rattler coming for his spot. The Saints will be like Seattle and the Chargers in point differential. They remind me of the 2014 Panthers that went 7-8-1 under Ron Rivera. Not a lot of star power, but a well-chemistried team that plays well under the system. Chase Young’s addition to the defense may be a good reset for his career. In a weird division, New Orleans could find themselves in second or even at the top.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 4-13
Don’t think about the 2023-2024 season when ranking this team in the 20s. This team had a complete 180 switch at the end of last season. The improvements under first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon are something to watch. Kyler Murray returning from injury last year brought a spark, and now he is set to start the season with 4th overall pick receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The mission for Arizona should not be to contend in the playoffs but to remind themselves they are rebuilding. Despite that, the Cardinals will be fun to watch with high-flying receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. pairing up with big-arm Kyler Murray.
27. Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 4-13
On paper, this team looks legit. They had a productive offseason, grabbing balanced players. The defense looks steady, and the secondary looks strong. Tony Pollard could have a breakout season, and Calvin Ridley could return to his elite WR2 form. My only issue is Will Levis’s credibility as a franchise starting QB. There were shocking games and unsurprising ones. This team will be like a wave this season, even though they improved massively over seven months. In a tough division, even if Tennessee wins above .500, their division record might not be suitable for playoff football. The AFC South is a warzone with teams improving each week. If they handle their internal issues, Tennessee could shock everyone.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 3-14
Besides the few skill players they have, Vegas is not a team I’m too hyped about watching or even keeping up with. Having QB2s battle for the QB1 position is something nobody wants to deal with, but that is what the Raiders have to go through this year. 1st round pick Brock Bowers must get used to the target share and drop-off from what he is used to in college. The offensive line presents struggles too, ranking in the bottom half of the league last year with no big upgrades. I want to rank this team lower because I don’t see them winning 7 games. The Raiders are a very confusing team, to say the least, and any rank higher or lower than 28 wouldn’t be accurate. Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell are QBs that will win you a quarter, not 68 of them. This team still has so much room to improve on the offensive side, and well, this is an offensive game. Going against L.A. and K.C. twice a year does this team no good, but they should be more worried about facing other high-powered offenses like ATL and Miami this upcoming season.
29. Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 3-14
One year ago, I would have ranked the Panthers 30th if not 32nd, and I still would. But I believe that Carolina will be better than the rest of the teams ranked below. The odds of this team doing worse than winning 2 games are very hard to see happening. A second-year Bryce Young will try all he can to put Carolina in positions to win. The defense and offensive line have other implications, though. By trading away Brian Burns to the Giants, Carolina lost another piece to their once solid pass rush, but it doesn’t stop there. Being the worst team in the league last year with the worst record and not getting the first overall pick should be illegal in the league, right? Unfortunately, it’s hard to agree when the team did it to themselves. Regardless, there’s no way Carolina repeats a worse year than last year after seemingly ‘improving’ this offseason. If Bryce Young can get the ball out in a timely manner without feeling rushed and if his receivers can create separation, Carolina could definitely be a 7-8 win team at the end of the season.
30. Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 6-11
Floor: 3-14
Not much to say about Denver since they are rebuilding, but one thing to keep notice of is the development of their new acquisitions. I’m not sold at all on this team sniffing the mid-20s all season long. A complete reset is what this team needs, and playoffs should be nowhere on their mind. Head Coach Sean Payton will have his team compete, though, and his rookie QB Bo Nix will be getting lots of practice. But to say Denver is a winnable team this year and even the next few is going to be hard to believe. I do know Payton will develop his guys well and show huge optimism for Broncos fans, but this year will not be a year Denver will want to be proud of.
31. New England Patriots
Ceiling: 5-12
Floor: 3-14
It seems fitting to put the Pats in this spot, as many other football sources can concur. New head coach, new QB, new system with not a lot of skillful firepower—New England is going to struggle this year. Drake Maye has seemed to struggle all camp and needs a lot of time to adapt to the NFL scheme and speed. It’s probably best that he sits out and develops since they have Jacoby Brissett, who played under the Patriots a few years ago. Although we know this team is going to struggle, this is a learning opportunity for everyone, including first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. A lot is on the Pats’ shoulders right now since they have the hardest-ranked schedule, but the pressure shouldn’t be so heavy since there is no huge expectation that this team will win more than 5 games this season.
32. New York Giants
Ceiling: 4-13
Floor: 1-16
Oof, is what you say if you’re a Giants fan this year. That was a very disturbing preseason from their franchise QB Daniel Jones and a disturbing performance from most positions. It’s clear that the Giants will have another disappointing year, but the question is whether this team will win more than a game. Their only star player on offense going to their division rival is exactly the summary of the offseason the Giants had. Drafting Malik Nabers in the first round is the definition of mixed priorities. Instead of rebuilding the O-Line or getting a piece to improve the defense, they draft a top-tier rookie WR with no elite QB to throw him the ball. You have to crawl before you walk, and the Giants tried swimming before crawling. That is going to bite them in the end if Daniel Jones suffers an injury or is benched for bad performance. But hey, they ended up getting Brian Burns to assist with that weak pass rush, so we can give them some credit for helping that defense… right?