NBA Playoffs Conference Finals
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NBA Conference Finals Record: (5-0-1)
7:30pm cst: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (-5.5)
Game 1 was a treat for NBA fans with Nikola Jokic putting on a masterclass finishing with 34/21/14 just dominating the game. Anthony Davis also had one of his best games of these playoffs dropping 40 points. Jamal Murray and the Nuggets’ role players also showed up. The Lakers will definitely need to figure out how they can defend this Denver offense because D’Angelo Russell is a liability on defense. The Nuggets attacked Russell the entire game successfully. For me, the number is Denver favored by 6 at home with both teams being healthy. Yes, Game 1 landed on that number but the Nuggets finessed the Lakers the whole game until around the 4th quarter. I saw a couple Twitter posts that credit this to Rui Hachimura’s defense on Nikola Jokic. I didn’t look into it much but the numbers did suggest Hachimura’s defense to limit Jokic offensively so that LeBron and AD could roam and protect. So, what has happened in these playoffs when teams try and slow down Jokic? The Joker figures it out and more importantly gets his teammates involved. Also, if Hachimura was such a stopper then why did the Nuggets dominate the whole game except for the 4th? I would not look too far into this. It has done one thing for us: the line is down to Denver -5.5 so that is an auto-play on the Nuggets. Anthony Davis has also strong trends that show he is basically a no show offensively after a big offensive game and I expect that to continue tonight. Another reason why I love the Nuggets tonight and in this series: they dominated the rebounding battle. The 3PT shooting and FT shooting was close to even but the main difference was the rebounding margin. The Nuggets won the battle on the boards 47 to 30! That’s massive. The Lakers are not going to make up for that margin over night. I do think Jared Vanderbilt needs to play a larger role defensively but still it won’t be enough. I look forward to a great series but in Game 1 the Nuggets showed that they are just in a different class offensively, defensively and with Mike Malone on the sidelines. I lean under 226.5 in the game but I’m not officially playing an under in a Western Conference game.
Pick: Nuggets -5.5
Nikola Jokic Points, Rebounds & Assists Over 53.5 (-135)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Points Over 10.5 (-130)
