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The Oklahoma Sooners are set up to have the biggest win progression from last season to this season. A few months ago, after the National Championship, the discussion around the college football world was that Colorado was the team primed (pun intended) to have the biggest turnaround. This was mostly because Deion Sanders came in and completely overhauled a Colorado team that finished with only one win in 2022 - so the belief was that the Buffaloes would not be any worse and huge improvement was on its way. While improvement could be on the way for Colorado, the win improvement is more of a sure thing with the Sooners. 

Oklahoma finished last season (6-7), but five of those losses were by one score. Oklahoma was much better than their record indicated in 2022. Last year, OU dealt with a mass exodus of players after Lincoln Riley left to go to USC. First-year coach Brent Venables, who had spent the last 10 years as one of the highest-paid defensive coordinators in the country at Clemson, came in with huge expectations. Perhaps the production lost from the previous year’s team was undervalued even for Oklahoma's standards.

In Lincoln Riley’s last season in Norman, the Sooners finished 10th in the final poll with an (11-2) record. However, more than half (6) of their wins were by one possession. So, Oklahoma was not that much better than a lot of the teams they faced. As I discussed in the “Big 12 Going Bonkers” article, there is minimal difference among most of the teams in the Big 12. Given the Sooners' narrow wins in 2021 with a more-so-stacked-team, a not-as-strong 2022 Sooner team in a wide-open conference was a more difficult proposition for Oklahoma than most anticipated. 

This season could improve dramatically for Brent Venables in his second year in Norman for the Sooners' last campaign in the Big 12 before they leave for the SEC in 2024. Speaking of conference realignment, that has a lot to do with why the Sooners could be set up magnificently in 2023 – their schedule.

Texas and Oklahoma are atop the Big 12 Championship odds (per usual). The Sooners' most difficult game of the season by far will be against Texas in the annual Red River Showdown. After that, finding OU’s next most difficult game is difficult. Oklahoma avoids three of the four next best teams (after OU itself) in terms of odds. The only teams in the top half in conference odds that Oklahoma will face (outside of the Texas game) is a transitioning TCU team (98th in returning production and lost eight players to the NFL Draft) and a UCF team playing their first year in a power five conference. Both Sooners’ games against TCU and UCF will be played in Norman, and OU will also have a bye before playing the Knights. The next most difficult game for Oklahoma, at least based on odds, will be against Iowa State, who the Sooners will also play at home.

Oklahoma’s next toughest game (we are now fifth on the list of “toughest games”) will most likely be against either Oklahoma State or Kansas. Both games will be on the road for OU, and they will not be easy by any means, but this year’s Cowboy squad could be one of their worst since the mid Aughts (2000-2009). Oklahoma State lost a ton in the transfer portal. It should be noted that OSU has only beaten Oklahoma three times in the last 20 seasons. Yes, it is a rivalry, but Oklahoma has OSU’s number. So, Kansas of all teams, based on returning production and the timing of the game is getting OU at home right before the Sooners face their rival in Stillwater, which could be a little interesting. If the Kansas Jayhawks are Oklahoma’s second most difficult opponent, doesn’t that say something about the degree of difficulty or lack thereof on the schedule? The other conference games are a road game against a BYU team in its first year in the Big 12, a road game against a rebuilding Cincinnati team (126th in returning production) with a first-year coach, and a rebuilding West Virginia team (113th in returning production) who may not even have the same head coach they start the season with by the time they play Oklahoma. Are any of these teams really beating Oklahoma this season? 

Oh, and the non-conference? Arkansas State (99th in power ratings), SMU (49th in power ratings), and Tulsa (98th in power ratings and 124th in returning production). The toughest non-conference game for OU will be SMU, and the Sooners will get the Mustangs in Norman for good measure. 

The Sooners avoid Kansas State and Baylor – two teams that have had OU’s number recently. In addition to avoiding the Wildcats and Bears, the Sooners will also avoid a senior-laden Texas Tech squad that beat OU last season. Oklahoma could not have asked for a much easier schedule for their last season in the Big 12.