The Frustrating Consistency of Iowa State Football

College Football Preview Pre-Order

Since the AP Poll began in 1936, Iowa State had enjoyed 26 winning seasons (not many). HC Matt Campbell has had five of those 26 winning seasons. In fact, before hiring Campbell, the Cyclones had only one winning record in conference play (2000) since the Big 12 began in 1996. Since 1936, the Cyclones have had only 15 seasons of winning conference records. Five of those are under the leadership of Campbell. He has brought Iowa State to heights their program has never seen. Because of Campbell, Cyclone Football now has heightened expectations. However, since he was hired in 2016, the “style of play” is consistent to the point where the annual team potential does not seem to be changing for the long term. Iowa State football is certainly better than what it was before the hiring of Campbell but the same ole same ole is getting frustrating. Yes, for once, consistent play for Cyclone football is getting frustrating. Allow me to explain with the numbers below:

For those that have watched Matt Campbell Iowa State football over the last several years have noticed a few things. For one, they usually do a wonderful job of not committing many penalties (top 35 in fewest penalties in 2022). Second, they normally do an excellent job defensively of playing their roles in their base 3-3-5 “Stack” defense. They contain the run game and limit explosive passing plays. It is a form of a bend-not-break if you will, but it can shut down impatient offenses and at the very least frustrate players and teams who rely on big plays. The Big 12 has seen an increase in this defense as more teams have begun to implement this style in their playbooks. This is partially why the Big 12 is not as “flashy” offensively as it was 10 to 15 years ago.

On offense, Iowa State attempts to have a steady and consistent attack that focuses on ball control. However, this style can often result in conservative play calling in key situations. Although the Cyclones were decent on 3rd and 4th down (top 45 in conversion percentage), they had the ultimate challenge in red zone offense (128th). That is extremely noteworthy when a team that focuses on ball control and time of possession (17th in t.o.p) struggles with scoring opportunities. A team that hogs the clock for over two thirds of game time (Iowa State did in 2022) must finish drives and maximize their scoring opportunities because of the limited possessions. Iowa State simply could not finish drives. While the defense was terrific on 3rd down (7th), they really struggled on 4th down (103rd – although small sample size at 17 faced attempts). The defense was like the offense in the red zone too as they also struggled mightily (121st).

Since 2017, Iowa State has only been outgained by 100 yards or more six times (West Virginia in 2017; TCU, Baylor and Texas in 2018; Notre Dame in 2019; Big 12 Champion Kansas State in 2022). That is right - the Cyclone’s 62-14 loss to TCU this past season was not one of the six. TCU outgained the Cyclones only by 47 yards. The yardage differential was almost identical to the difference in points. Iowa State simply did not care about that game as much as TCU did.

If you look at the table above, Iowa State has been beaten by more than one score only ten times since Campbell’s second season in Ames. In eight of these occasions, Iowa State lost the turnover battle. That has been one of the biggest issues with Iowa State over the years. Brock Purdy threw 33 INT’s in his Cyclone career but turnovers were a problem last year too. Iowa State finished (116th) in turnover margin. That is not ideal when a team finds itself attempting to maximize its own possessions and limit the opposition’s by playing in a phone booth.

There is a simple pattern when it comes to Iowa State football since 2017. They will give their opponent everything they can handle. Iowa State does not give up big plays defensively and they hog the clock offensively. They also do not commit a ton of penalties. It is as if Iowa State is attempting something like the Military schools run. Because of this style of football, Iowa State often will find themself in a close game whether against Northern Iowa, Iowa or against a Big 12 contender. If the Cyclones do not see a dramatic shift in their identity soon, Iowa State’s annual win total will be predicated on timely scoring, winning the turnover margin and most importantly, not being conservative in key situations. If the last few years of Iowa State Football trends continue, they will continue to come out on the losing end of these close games.