CFB Week 1 - Thursday Handicaps
Photo Credit: The Coloradoan
College Football Season Record (3-0) [+2.74 units]
1 Unit per Bet. Shop the Best Line.
As many of you know, we got off to a hot start in Week 0, going undefeated. We posted our Georgia Tech handicap early for our DDSN Members, who are now up over 7 units to start the season. Not bad, but we have a long season ahead of us! Today, I will be giving everyone a sneak peek of the handicaps we have already posted for Members so y’all get an idea. We like to send out our handicaps early when we see a number that needs to be attacked. We monitor 24/7.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3; Total 54.5
This line has bounced around quite a bit from Jax State -3.5 to -1, and it’s starting to level out at -3 now. These two teams faced each other last season, and Coastal Carolina beat the brakes off the Gamecocks in Conway, South Carolina, 30-16. Both teams will have different quarterbacks starting this one, though both have enough experience from last season. I have this as an even game, so the Chanticleers getting a field goal is great. If Coastal can get Jax State into passing situations, they can find some success. The Gamecocks are a run-heavy team with some new WRs and a QB that lacks starting experience. Third-down conversions will play a huge role in this game. Give me the points. There are some 3.5’s popping up, so remember to shop for the best line.
Play: Coastal Carolina +3 (-102) [via DraftKings]
North Carolina Tar Heels -2 vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers; Total 49.5 (Now 51)
We have a couple of teams in the process of rebuilding/retooling. The North Carolina Tar Heels have been fortunate to have back-to-back starting NFL quarterbacks at the helm. They are now going through a transition period. Texas A&M transfer QB Max Johnson will be taking over, attempting to be the next UNC quarterback to lead an NFL team. First, he must ease the transition, but this will be his third team (LSU & Texas A&M) in his short career.
The Golden Gophers, on the other hand, will be starting an FBS rookie in FCS New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer. Brosmer was a stud at New Hampshire, but this is an obvious step up in competition. There is no telling how he will perform, but at least he will have a strong offensive line to work behind. Typically, PJ Fleck runs a run-heavy offense, so I would not be surprised if they eased him into the starting role.
North Carolina will also lean on its running game with one of the best in the country, Omarion Hampton, with a solid backup, Darwin Barlow. I expect UNC to try and exploit the revamped Minnesota defensive line that might be one of the weakest in the Big 10. The Minnesota running backs will also be talented but will be facing a much tougher defensive line.
This leads us to what I feel is most important: the defenses. North Carolina’s defensive line made an impact in last season’s opening game against South Carolina. Most of those players are returning. Let’s not forget, North Carolina destroyed Minnesota last year in Chapel Hill 31-13. Yes, Drake Maye was on the team and they were at home, but I am not so sure without those factors, Minnesota can make up that much of a difference. Can Minnesota make up 18 points with no Drake Maye and playing at home? They will have a new QB up from the FCS level, a retooled defense, and are getting two points. Will that make up the difference of 16 points?
I am betting no. Max Johnson isn’t winning the Heisman this year, nor will he be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, but he does have talent. If he leans on the running game, they should be able to take advantage of the Golden Gophers’ defense. He cannot turn the ball over, though. I will note each team had two live ball turnovers in last year’s meeting. Can Brosmer take care of the football? I favor the North Carolina defense, which is important when playing on the road. You need a QB, win the turnover battle, and have a strong defense. Outside of Minnesota’s offensive line, I give UNC the edge in every category. Wide receiver may be better for the Golden Gophers, but they obviously need a QB to get them the ball. Which team has the better chance for an offensive explosion? Which team has the better chance at making a defensive stop? Which team has the better chance of forcing a turnover? It’s North Carolina for me.
Play: North Carolina -2 (-110) [via DraftKings] (Members Club)
North Dakota State Bison vs. Colorado Buffaloes -9.5 (Now 10.5); Total 60.5 (Now 55.5)
On Thursday, we get the highly anticipated return of Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes. It is our first opportunity to see if they have improved. The offensive line has been retooled, but it will be a mystery until we see the on-field product. Expectations will be extremely high after last season’s disaster and lack of pass protection. The O-Line will be tasked with protecting top NFL prospect Shedeur Sanders. Sanders has all the potential in the world, but now he must put it to the test.
Colorado lost some of their offensive talent at the running back position but still returns their two best receivers and added a couple more. Still, Colorado’s issue was never a lack of talent. It was a lack of depth, size, and pass protection. The transfer portal does not cure all either. Remember, last season nobody gave Colorado a shot, and they were overlooked. Now, there is a giant bullseye on their chest. Can they survive?
The North Dakota State Bison will be traveling down to Boulder with an upset on their mind. Can they pull it off? This line was Buffs -8.5 for most of the summer, then it began to creep up and is now Colorado -10. I believe this is mostly due to NDSU missing their best safety and interior guard due to injury. Are those losses worth two points? Not in my opinion. NDSU has been a great TEAM for years. Next man up. Something that Colorado may not be able to say for themselves, which makes these two teams different.
I was watching some NDSU film to get a better idea of their team, and I feel like I struck gold (I added the video below so you can watch the first couple NDSU offensive possessions). The Bison run a particular and unique offense. They run mostly a rushing offense with play action mixed into it. There are also multiple sets. You will see them in a 13 formation with one running back and three tight ends and many more. This is used to confuse defenses. Who has a defense that was easily confused and taken advantage of against every good offense they faced last year? Ding. Ding. Colorado.
I am sticking to my guns on this one. Not because I am going with my first instinct, but I also took the extra time to look for the information to back it up. I even looked towards Colorado, but a two-possession game is too much without knowing the state of the offensive line or defense. This veteran NDSU team will be looking to take advantage of Colorado’s possible lack of cohesion. I really see this Bison rushing attack controlling the clock and keeping the ball away from Shedeur. NDSU has a good enough pass rush to test the Buffs’ new linemen as well. I also want to fade dysfunctional Colorado has been in the offseason. At least from the outside looking in.
I hope the Colorado defense is ready because I know the NDSU offense will be prepared.
Play: North Dakota State +9.5 (-110) [via DraftKings] (Now 10.5) (Members Club)
Play: North Dakota State ML (+270) [via DraftKings] (Now +300) (Members Club)
*In Week 0 every line except for Delaware State moved against us so I am not concerned at line movement at his point. I’m confident in our handicaps and positions.
