College Football Conference Championship Friday Handicaps
Thanks to those that took the time to read. Questions? Leave a comment. Want info on more games that your book offers? Let me know. Follow along on our socials and good luck to us!
We also stream live on Twitch.tv talking about the games and live betting.
College Football Record: 100-101-8 . Betting 1 Unit to Win X.
6:00pm cst: New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames +10.5; Total 58
We get conference championship weekend started with an absolute banger! New Mexico State is having their best season in program history led by head coach Jerry Kill and QB gunslinger Diego Pavia. Liberty is also having the best season in program led by a great duo with head coach Jamey Chadwell and QB Kaidon Slater from Cedar Hill, Texas. NMSU will be overlooked in this one but shouldn’t be because of their defense. The Aggies defense has been great especially at creating turnovers and rushing the passer. Liberty is strong on both sides of the ball and their rushing attack is underrated. I rate this teams evenly and prefer the Aggies defense. This is a great matchup but too many points to lay against this New Mexico State team that can very well win this game and at close to 3/1 they are worth a shot on the ML.
Pick: New Mexico State +10.5 (-115) [via DraftKings]
7:00pm cst: Oregon Ducks -9 vs. Washington Huskies; Total 65.5
This was my handicap on October 14th when these two faced off at Washington where the Huskies won 33-36:
I made the game Washington -2. These are two great teams and we should have one hell of a ball game. I think this game is close to a pick em but with Washington being at home they get a couple of points. The Huskies ruined the Ducks season last year with a road upset. I think the tables will be turned this year and the Ducks get revenge. Washington may have better weapons on the outside but I rate Oregon better in all the other categories, including quarterback. I also prefer the Oregon defense to Washingtons. The first pressure situation we have seen Pennix in was against Arizona and they did enough to win but he did not look great. The team that wins the turnover battle will win the game. I’m siding with Bo Nix and the Oregon defense getting one too many points.
Ok, so what has changed since then? Not very much. Washington played great against Oregon State on the road and escaped a lazy performance against Washington State. Oregon has not faced much competition. Oregon moved the ball very easily on Washington in the first matchup but the overly aggressive style of HC Dan Lanning cost the Ducks the victory in my opinion. Yes, in a perfect world if he converted every 4th and goal attempt they would have won the game but they didn’t. Did he learn from that? I would hope so but he may be stubborn, which would not be surprising.
Oregon laying nine points is basically saying the Ducks are going to wipe the floor with Washington. Like I said in the first meeting, because both of these offenses are so strong it will come down to making stops and the better defense. In game one Oregon was 0-3 on 4th down conversions with no live ball turnovers. Washington was 2-3 on 4th down conversions with Pennix throwing 1 interception. Washington won the game because of these 4th down stops winning the turnover battle.
In my opinion nine points is a ton to lay in a game where the teams are about dead even. Oregon did move the ball very easily against Washington converting 62% on 3rd down with 31 first downs (Washington was 45% with 24 1st downs). The line suggests Oregon will have the same success AND convert those missed fourth downs without turnovers. That is a lot to ask in a rematch. I sticking with my original handicap and process here and backing the Huskies on a neutral. This should be a great game with very high stakes. Huskies are also almost about 3/1 on the ML if you do not trust Bo Nix and Dan Lanning’s decision making.
Pick: Washington +9 (-110) [via DraftKings]
