Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Chiefs
Photo Credit: NFL
NFL Season Record: (0.00 units) - Betting 1 Unit to Win X
7:20pm cst: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs -4.5; Total 53.5
Game Handicap:
The NFL is finally back! Historically, the reigning Super Bowl champions have played great on opening Thursday night. I am not one nor do I regurgitate trends. Let’s stick with the facts going into tonight, and we should start with the injury reports: Detroit’s Jameson Williams is OUT due to a six-game suspension. KC’s DE Charles Omenihu is OUT, Travis Kelce is questionable, Kadarius Toney and Richie James Jr. are both probable. Chiefs’ Chris Jones also will not be playing due to a holdout.
Travis Kelce is a game-changer, but in this offense that still has Patrick Mahomes at QB, you can plug in another TE like Noah Gray, and he will be a formidable band-aid for the night. I do not expect this offense to miss much without Kelce. The one time they did not play with him, they still managed to win 36-10 against the Steelers. I believe the line move .5 maybe 1 after the Kelce news, but he still may play.
The Lions finished the season strong after losing to the Cowboys and Dolphins last season. The offense was on absolute fire, but their problem is whether their defense can stop anyone. Jared Goff seems to be very comfortable in this system as his numbers last year suggest. The Lions’ offense is full of weapons from the halfback position to wide receiver.
The facts are this Lions offense can move the ball, especially with beautiful outdoor weather in KC tonight. I am not too worried about Travis Kelce possibly not playing because I actually think he will if anything as a distraction. This number opened up at 6.5 and is now sitting Chiefs -4.5. Again, once the Kelce news hits, if it does, I can only see this moving to 5 maybe 5.5, but it is doubtful. The main concern for the Chiefs is on the defensive line. No Chris Jones tonight is a huge loss for the Chiefs. They will also be without Charles Omenihu. George Karlaftis and the rookie Felix Anudike-Uzoma will need to step up tonight.
Are the Chiefs the better team? Yes. Do the Chiefs have the better coach and QB? Yes. Better defense? Maybe not tonight. I love betting on the Chiefs, and I typically do throughout the season historically because it is hard to go wrong backing Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. With Kelce not 100% (we assume), new OC (like it matters), new WRs (may not matter), and no Chris Jones (huge), I would be happy to lay any number. That just is not the case tonight. I feel this number should be closer to 3 or 4 with these factors. One may think, ‘what’s the difference between 4 and 4.5?’ Well, if you bet the NFL long enough, you will find out. Especially the difference between 3 and 4. I’m taking the Lions here based on the number. I think they have a certain focus coming into the season, but mainly the points I mentioned about the Chiefs above is what scares me off of them tonight. I just really do not like how the Chiefs defense plays without Chris Jones. The Kelce news is a non-factor to be honest. If Goff can hold off on the turnovers, I think they can keep this game close or backdoor it if not win.
Pick: Lions +4.5 (-110) [via DraftKings]
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