It’s the first of three days of NFL Wild Card football. We start Saturday off with the Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers then the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Many of the matchups this weekend are ones we have seen already at least once before and twice if its a divisional game. Let’s breakdown our handicaps for each game and what it will take to win and more importantly cover the number. We will be using the numbers at time of this post from Circa Sports.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5); total Under 42 3:30pm ct

Ok, so what we know already is that the 49ers have swept the Seahawks this season. History says rookie and first time playoff QB have plenty of trouble in the playoffs. It will be Geno’s first time starting in the playoffs and of course rookie Brock Purdy’s first playoff. 49ers won 27-7 at home in the game where QB Trey Lance blew his knee in the first meeting. Jimmy G came into the game and the Niners dominated the Seahawks. Seattle was coming off of an improbably home win in Geno Smith’s first game taking over as QB. The opponent was Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. So, you could attribute the score to a Seattle let down down. Seattle had 10 penalties for to the San Fran 1. The 49ers moved the ball all over the field on the Seahawks. They had 25 first downs, 6/15 40% on 3rd down and had 189 rushing yards. We know the 49ers defense is good but the offense dominated that day. Seattle’s offense didn’t show up. Geno had 2 interceptions, only 180 passing yards and the offense had only 36 rushing yards. In the second game Brock Purdy started on the road at Seattle winning 21-13. Seattle played better on offense but still had 8 penalties and allowed 170 rushing yards. They were also at home. Not that the 49ers have a great home field advantage in Silicon Valley. To me, the spread comes down to this: Will Seattle be able to move the ball on this 49ers defense? Can Seattle slow down the run? Will Seattle limit penalties and turnovers? Can Brock Purdy be trusted in his first playoff game? I think that the 49ers lean on the running game so it can open up the pass game. Seattle has struggled towards the end of the season and 49ers are on a strong uptick and a favorite to go to the Super Bowl. I like a strong running game from the 49ers and its great defense to shut down Geno Smith. He isn’t as hot as he was at the beginning of the season. I’ll go with the hotter team at home that can run, pass and limit TOs and penalties. Historically Wild Card games go under and I like that to remain true in this game. No need to put up style points. 49ers will play defense and shut down Seattle and game goes under. One could argue that it is too many points for the 49ers to be laying with a rookie QB. The line also opened at -10.5 and only moved down a point. I just cannot trust the Seattle offense right now that has been trending in the wrong direction opposite of San Francisco.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5); total Under 47 7:15pm ct

This is a rematch we saw earlier this year but that was week 3 and Justin Herbert was coming off of a rib injury. Jacksonville won the game 38-10 on the road. But they will be hosting in Duval County tonight. Chargers have won 5 of its last 7 games and Jacksonville has won 6 of its last 7 games. One could argue the Jags have faced better competition. Jacksonville is definitely healthier than the Chargers are. LA head coach Brandon Staley has been in the news most recently for playing his starters in a literally meaningless game last week vs. Denver. By meaningless I mean the Chargers could not improve or worsen its playoff seeding. LA has one of the best QBs in the League with Justin Herbert but will be missing his big target Mike Williams who was hurt in that meaningless game. Joey Bosa is listed as questionable at the time of this article. He was also hurt last week. Chargers on the road, dealing with injuries and a HC whose head is on the chopping block is not a great mixture! Unless Staley wins the Super Bowl I believe he will be fired this season. He is terrible in game management situations and in the playoffs that cannot happen. On the other hand, the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and QB Trevor Lawrence couldn’t he hotter. HC Doug Pederson has playoff experience with his Super Bowl win with the Philadelphia Eagles and as a backup QB with the Green Bay Packers. The Jags also have unknown weapons to the casual NFL fan and a stout defense to boot. I’ll take the Jags in this matchup and I also think they win this outright. Only way the Chargers win this one is if Justin Herbert plays out of his mind to carry the team, which could very well happen. Give me the more stable team, crazy home playoff environment and QB Trevor Lawrence in his NFL arrival party. I like this game to go under. No style points here. Just win and advance. This could turn into a shootout but that would favor the Chargers. I think the Jaguar defense shows up and slows down the Charger offense.