Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers vs. Chiefs
Photo Credit: USA Today
NFL Season Record: 38-45-7 - Betting 1 Unit to Win X
5:35pm cst: San Francisco 49ers -2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs; Total 47.5
After a great and eventful NFL season, we have our finale in no better place than Sin City, Las Vegas, Nevada. We might as well have some fun with our friends in the desert with this game, right? Let’s get after it!
We should start with the favorite, the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners had a bye week and since then, it has been a matter of survival for them as they made their way to Vegas. The Packers jumped out quickly against the 49ers and at one point held a 21-17 lead with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, until they eventually lost. A heroic six-play, sixty-nine-yard late TD drive by Brock Purdy made the difference in the game as San Francisco advanced to the next round after that 24-21 victory. If that was not a close enough call for San Fran, the Detroit Lions had them on the ropes before choking the game away. The Lions outgained the 49ers and held a 24-7 lead at halftime. The Lions dominated and had absolutely nothing to show for it. Brock Purdy struck again with a seven-play, seventy-yard touchdown drive to ice the game. San Francisco escaped death’s grip not once, but twice.
The Kansas City Chiefs were faced with the tough task of having to play three games, as they did not earn a wild card week bye. They played in sub-zero weather against the Dolphins and dominated. They played in a freezing and snowy game on the road in Buffalo and secured a strong victory, and then went on the road against the “mighty” Baltimore Ravens and “MVP” Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs not only dominated the Ravens, but they toyed with them. The Chiefs did not gain a first down in the second half against the Ravens, but it was not due to a poor performance. If you watched the game, it was clear that Andy Reid was content to sit on the ball and punt it back to Baltimore. He did not respect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The unsung hero here is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has this KC defense playing at an extremely high level.
Now, if someone watched these five games and thought about this matchup rationally, they would think that the 49ers defense is leaking like the Edmund Fitzgerald (RIP). On the opposite side of the ball, the Chiefs offense is humming as if they haven’t lost a step. Brock Purdy is Mr. Cool, but this is obviously the highest pressure moment he has faced in his career. It just so happens to be against arguably the best defense and secondary in the NFL. There are also Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Isaiah Pacheco, who are playing some of their best football right now, not 10 weeks ago.
Game Script:
The coin flip will land on tails. Andy Reid wants to make sure he is not playing from behind in another Super Bowl (as with the 49ers & Eagles), so the Chiefs will come out aggressively. They know that the 49ers have shown themselves to be vulnerable at the beginning of games (as seen with the Packers & Lions). Pacheco has fresh legs, so they will let him loose, which will open up the passing game. Now, the pressure will be on Brock Purdy once again, just like in the two previous games. Will he be able to handle it? My answer is: no.
When the Chiefs have a lead, they are dangerous. People forget that DC Steve Spagnuolo was the DC for the Giants and won two Super Bowls by defeating Tom Brady. He will be locked in for Brock Purdy. The defensive line and edge rushers will be able to attack, while the defensive backs circle the secondary like hawks. It’s no easy feat, but the 49ers will need to force Patrick Mahomes to throw two interceptions to win this game. The 49ers have the weapons on offense to test the Chiefs, but it will be tough.
I feel like both teams will want to play aggressively because nobody wants to be playing from behind in this game. Yes, that sounds obvious, but how many times can the 49ers continue to come back in epic fashion until it catches up to them? We talk about this in the college basketball NCAA Tournament. Teams that skate by once, especially twice, typically get a rude awakening the next time around.
In Closing:
I cannot trust the 49ers defense after they have been exploited in the playoffs. The Chiefs defense has been the exact opposite, as they are playing as sharp as a razor. People continue to say, “Can’t pass up Patrick Mahomes getting points” or “can’t go against Mahomes in the Super Bowl,” and a lot of that is true, but the defense is getting no respect. Give me the best quarterback playing lights out and the defense that has been backing him up every step of the way. We have been riding with the Chiefs as they have been disrespected this whole playoffs, and laughing all the way to the bank.
Let’s do it one more time.
Pick: Chiefs +2 (-110) [via BetOnline]
Pick: Chiefs ML (+110) [via BetOnline]
Pick: Chiefs Team Total Over 23.5 Points (-120) [via BetOnline]
Pick: Over 47.5 (-110) [via BetOnline]
For the Prop Fans:
Patrick Mahomes OVER 3+ Touchdowns (+154) [via BetOnline]
Isaiah Pacheco OVER 99+ Rushing Yards (+211) [via BetOnline]
Christian McCaffrey OVER 102 Rushing Yards (+118) [via BetOnline]
Justin Reid 1+ Interceptions (+900) [via BetOnline]
George Karlaftis 2+ Sacks (+500) [via BetOnline]
