NFL Christmas Eve Handicaps
Photo Credit: Pride of Detroit
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NFL Season Record: 27-28-6 - Betting 1 Unit to Win X
12:00pm cst: Detroit Lions -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings; Total 47.5
The Detroit Lions are riding high after a massive win last week against the Denver Broncos. Detroit also has the Dallas Cowboys on deck, which will be a huge game in regards to seeding but first, they must defeat their division rivals. The Vikings are still fighting for a playoff spot with third string veteran QB Nic Mullens. The Vikings need to get Mullens outside of the pocket so that he can use his mobility. Mullens had a great game against the Bengals on the road except for his three interceptions. Obviously, if he can cut down on turnovers, the Vikings can be successful. The Vikings defense will also need to slow down this Detroit offense that seems to be on fire. Vikings love playing Detroit at home as they have won the last five games straight up. I am backing the Vikings today at home getting three points. I would grab 3, if you see 2.5 I would still play it but buying up to 3 would feel safer. I am only seeing 2.5 at DraftKings currently.
Pick: Vikings +3 (-115) [via Caesars]
12:00pm cst: Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Tennessee Titans; Total 42
The Seahawks are back in the playoff conversation and the Titans are official kicked out. It also sounds like Will Levis will be OUT at QB and they should be starting ole Ryan Tannehill. Tanny will use this as a job interview for teams this offseason. I am not a fan of his game so him starting doesn’t move the needle. Tannehill turns the ball over too frequently for my liking. He is also bad playing from behind if the Seahawks can get a lead they can hold on. I like Seattle to build off of their MNF victory to stay in the playoff race. I am backing Geno Smith and a Seahawks team with an renewed thirst for a playoff run.
Pick: Seahawks -3 (-108) [via DraftKings]
12:00pm cst: Green Bay Packers -4 vs. Carolina Panthers; Total 38.5
If you watched the Falcons vs. Panthers game last week than you know the Panthers had no business winning that game. The Falcons literally gave the game away with terrible turnovers from Desmond Ridder and Bijan Robinson. BUT the Panthers were able to capitalize on those turnovers and outgain the Falcons. We will have beautiful football weather in Carolina unlike last week. The Panthers have cleaned house and I think this team wants to build on their victory last week. They also do not have their own draft pick so tanking does not matter for them. Panthers need to protect Bryce Young and establish the run to be victorious today. This my kinky play of the weekend. It’s a little weird but it just might work for us.
Pick: Panthers +4 (-108) [via DraftKings]
12:00pm cst: Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Houston Texans; Total 40
Something we have learned the past few weeks is that the Cinderella quarterback stories have been ending after three games. Joe Flacco now goes on the road after a miracle win after his terrible turnovers to defeat the Bears. This is the perfect opportunity to back the Texans. Houston has Case Keenum who had a strong game last week aside from a pick six. Yes, the Browns have a great defense but so does Houston. I am backing Keenum playing in the state of Texas and fading Joe Flacco after winning a game they should have loss. I am taking the points and I feel like the Texans get the outright victory.
Pick: Texans +3 (-110) [via Caesars]
12:00pm cst: Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons -3; Total 44
Is Michael Pittman Jr. really worth 2/3 points? I don’t think so. This line was a pick / -1 to ATL and now the Falcons and their QB is favored by 3 against a tough Colts team. The Falcons do not have a QB you can trust and in my opinion they should not be laying 3 points against a playoff team. This is basically a playoff game for both teams and because of that I have to take the points with the Colts.
Pick: Colts +3 (-115) [via DraftKings]
AFTERNOON SLATE
3:00PM CST: Jacksonville Jaguars -2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Total 43
Something’s gotta give in this game. Jaguars have been great on the road but are on a three game losing streak. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a three game winning streak and they too play much better on the road than at home. Trevor Lawrence has looked awful lately and is coming off a concussion in the Ravens game. Will the trends win correlating to a Jags road win after losing three straight or will the hotter team win correlating with the Bucs winning their fourth straight?
Pick: Buccaneers +2 (-110) [via DraftKings]
3:30pm cst: Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins -1.5; Total 48.5
The news has been the Cowboys cannot win on the road especially against teams with a winning record. Not so fast my friend! The Dolphins are in the same boat who can’t defeat winning teams. The Dolphins offensive line has been banged up a bit, which is great news for the Dallas defense. The Cowboys defense was also embarrassed last week in Buffalo against the run and the Dolphins have some great running backs at their disposal. Do you trust the Cowboys defense against the Dolphins offense more or the Cowboys offense against the Dolphins defense? I am choosing the latter and siding with Dallas. The Dallas defense can rattle Tua who we know is terrible against a good pass rush and if the Dallas offense can make some plays they will succeed.
Pick: Cowboys +1.5 (-112) [via DraftKings]
3:30pm cst: Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears -4.5; Total 42
The Cardinals have shown they are not tanking and want to win. I am not sure how Chicago will play including Justin Fields after his press conference basically saying he will not be returning as the QB next season. It sounded like the Bears will be drafting a QB rather than paying Fields. This number is 1.5 too high for me and I rather back the Cardinals off an embarrassing loss to the Niners. Too many points to lay with Chicago.
Pick: Cardinals +4.5 (-108) [via DraftKings]
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
7:15pm cst: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos -7.5; Total 37
The Patriots have not been great but now they are dealing with even more injury issues. QB Bailey Zappe will be without a couple of his favorite targets in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hunter Henry along with Rhamondre Stevenson. Denver on the other hand, still has the playoffs in reach with a victory tonight. The Denver defense has been great except for being embarrassed last week against the Lions in Detroit. Now, they return home looking for vengeance. This number feels large but the Patriots offense has been struggling. After the Broncos embarrassing performance I expect a big game. I am backing Denver tonight. There are 7.5’s out there and I would play that as well but you can always buy down.
Pick: Broncos -7 (-120) [via Caesars]
