Ace in the Hole: The Newest Star Hurlers in MLB
Photo Credit: USA Today
The 2024 MLB season has been characterized by a lack of offense. Teams are scoring 4.33 runs per game, a decline from 4.62 in 2023. The league batting average is .240, the lowest since “The Year of the Pitcher” in 1968. Outside of a few outliers (Shohei Ohtani for instance), the quality of hitting in the MLB has been underwhelming.
Conversely, pitching has been outstanding. Teams like the Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers have garnered a number of surprising young starters, and other teams have benefitted from rookie flamethrowers making an immediate impact on their ball clubs. Of pitchers with less than three full years of MLB experience, these nine are some of the top names undergoing a breakthrough season in 2024.
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
An under the radar selection, Abbott has been brilliant for an otherwise lackluster Reds rotation. One of the few southpaws on the list, Abbott throws a four seamer, curveball, sweeper, and changeup. The fastball and the changeup have been his bread and butter, as both have a positive run value by Statcast’s measures. He doesn’t blow pitches by batters, leading to a lower strikeout rate, but a key to Abbott’s success this season has been his command. He’s lowered his 2023 walk rate of 9.6% to 6.6% this year. Consequently, his ERA is down a full point this year to 2.68. The crafty lefty is only 24, and with work on his breaking pitches could elevate his game further.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
Ronel Blanco is the only Astros pitcher with qualifying stats, and quite the stats those are. His ERA is at a remarkable 1.99, a huge improvement from last year’s 4.50. Blanco is also the only pitcher to throw a no-hitter in 2024, which he completed against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 1st. He relies on his fastball, slider, and changeup equally, and each one has been nothing short of stellar. He has great swing and miss stuff, particularly his changeup (34.1 Whiff%), and has limited home runs against his off-speed pitches. His walk rates are on the higher side, but it has yet to slow down what has been one of the hottest starts to the 2024 season of any pitcher.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have been a surprise team of 2024, primarily due to stellar starting pitching. One of the stars of their rotation has been 28-year-old Kutter Crawford. He’s averaging a strikeout an inning, and only recently his ERA ballooned to a 2.89 following a rough start against the Brewers. Despite not throwing particularly hard, Crawford has utilized a four-seamer and a cutter that have been fairly effective against opposing hitters. Furthermore, his sweeper has seen an uptick in usage, as he now throws it 22% of the time as opposed to 6.7% in 2023. He’s taken a big step up from his 2023 campaign, and will be a key factor as to whether the Red Sox can make a late playoff push.
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
After an injury-plagued 2023, the Yankees were happy to get Gil back for this season, especially with Gerrit Cole sidelined for the first few months of 2024 with an elbow injury. He has been absolutely electric thus far, pitching to a 2.11 ERA and 70 strikeouts through 10 starts. In his latest start, Gil went 6.1 scoreless innings, only allowing two walks and an infield single. He’s touched 100 MPH with his fastball, but his best pitch has been his change-up. Gil throws it 26.4% of the time, and hitters are only slugging .152 against it. Due to his ability to mix velocity with those two pitches, in addition to an above average slider, Gil has made his case to stay in the Yankees rotation when Cole eventually returns.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
An 0.84 ERA is good, right? The 30-year-old rookie has dominated batters all season, allowing only five runs through nine starts and no more than two in a single outing. Imanaga doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging approximately 92 MPH with the four-seamer, but is incredibly efficient with it. The southpaw’s fastball has the highest run value of any pitch in the MLB according to Statcast, and his split-finger has been filthy as well. Though his ERA may not be sustainable, Imanaga is the real deal, and is a clear front-runner both in the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young award categories.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Before Paul Skenes took the league by storm, Jones was the first rookie Pirates pitcher to showcase his impressive stuff. In 59 innings of work, Jones has a 3.05 ERA, and a WHIP just below 1.00. He throws the ball hard, averaging 97.3 MPH on the fastball, and complements it well with a slider, curveball, changeup mix. He causes lots of swings and misses with his stuff, particularly the slider, which has a 42.1% whiff rate. Statcast ranks it as the fourth-best slider in the league. Great velocity, strong breaking pitches and above average accuracy spells out serious potential for the 22-year-old.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
Possibly the biggest surprise of 2024, Mason Miller has embarrassed nearly every lineup he has faced. The closer’s statline is almost laughable, as he has struck out 42 batters in 22 innings of work. He only needs his premier 100+ MPH fastball and buckling slider to strike out more than half the batters he’s faced. Miller finds himself in the top 1% of Statcast categories such as xERA, xBA, xSLG, and K%. He has been the definition of dominant, and playoff contenders around the league ought to keep an eye on Miller if the A’s do decide to ship him away.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
Don’t let Olson’s 1-5 record fool you; he’s the real deal. After a strong rookie campaign in 2023, Olson has been nothing short of an all-star caliber pitcher in 2024. His start on Saturday lowered his ERA to 1.92. The key to his success has been pitch tunneling, and effectively utilizing his entire arsenal. He throws the slider just as often as his four-seamer, but also throws his changeup 24% of the time. Add a sinker and a curveball, and Olson is able to target both lefties and righties and throw the ball to all areas of the zone. He’s only 24, and should continue to improve as his career progresses.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB’s number two prospect has certainly lived up to the hype in his arrival to the bigs. The 6’6” flamethrower has a fastball unlike any other starter. Whereas Skenes lights up the scoreboard repeatedly with 100 MPH four-seamers, the average fastball velocity of a starting pitcher is only 93.7. If that wasn’t unfair enough, his fastball averages 14.1” of run, meaning hitters have to deal with insane movement on top of elite speed. Add a cartoon-like slider and disappearing splitter, and you have a hitter’s worst nightmare. He sports a 2.25 ERA through three starts, and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to say that it will likely go down.