NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen: Thursday
Credit: Post and Courier
We’ll be handicapping every NCAA Tournament game to help everyone this month. We feel it is necessary to give y’all as much information as possible to be successful during March Madness. There are hundreds of ways to gamble on the tournament or fill out your bracket so that’s why we will try to get you everything you need. We went 57% last year with riding UConn winning the National Championship. BUT THAT WAS LAST YEAR! Time to move! Let’s go!
College Basketball Season Record: 258-263-16 — Betting 1 Unit to Win X
NCAA Tournament Record (21-23-3) [includes First Four]
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6:00pm cst: Clemson Tigers vs. Arizona Wildcats -7.5; Total 151.5
This is the perfect game to tip-off Sweet Sixteen weekend. Arizona had a tough time against Dayton’s defense when they decided to press them full-court and trap. The Wildcats struggle with physicality. It took getting slapped around by Dayton the last 7 minutes of the first half for them to come out scorching hot to start the second half, which, in my opinion, won them the game. Dayton took their foot off the gas defensively, and it cost them. Clemson, on the other hand, had their foot on the accelerator against New Mexico and against Baylor. They held strong against Baylor when they could not hit a second-half three-pointer. I have watched both teams play all season. Clemson is the perfect foil to Arizona. Clemson will feed the post and try to abuse the Wildcats’ interior, going inside and out. It will be up to the Clemson guards to control the game. On the flip side, Arizona has been living by the three-point shot against lesser competition. Dayton outplayed them. Arizona’s first 10 minutes against Dayton were also crucial. They forced Dayton to turn the ball over, and they cashed in those errors. Clemson is in the top 50 in the country in preventing turnovers, while Arizona is 203rd. This is a bad matchup for Arizona but a great one for Clemson. The Tigers have veteran guards and post players. They play physically, can feed the post, shoot the three, play pressure defense, and limit turnovers. I like Clemson to cover and win this game outright. Whichever team is tougher and plays like it, will win.
Pick: Clemson +7.5 (-110) [via DraftKings]
6:30pm cst: San Diego State Aztecs vs. UConn Huskies -11; Total 135.5
What a rematch we have tonight! UConn is looking like the class of the tournament, just like they have been all season. Last year, I made this game UConn -9.5, and the Huskies ended up rolling, winning by 17. We cashed. Double digits here is very interesting. In my opinion, San Diego State is much better this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They lost some size, but they gained more offense. Both teams run, are long, and have players that can play and defend every position. The x-factor in this game will be Donovan Clingan, UConn’s center. He will have the size advantage and could put San Diego State in some tough matchups in the pick and roll. This will obviously be the Aztecs’ best opponent of the season, and maybe for UConn as well. Probably the best defense the Huskies have faced as well. It’s hard to pass on UConn in any game, but I’m taking the points with San Diego State. I like the way the Aztecs have improved offensively, and if the defense sets the tone early, they can stay in this game. I think this revenge game will be tight, and the Aztecs are one of the few teams that can take down UConn.
Pick: San Diego State +11 (-110) [via DraftKings]
8:50pm cst: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. North Carolina Tar Heels -4.5; Total 173.5
This should be a track meet. Alabama and Nate Oates love to run up and down the floor and shoot the three. North Carolina was out-rebounded by Michigan State, but they ended up making four more three-pointers than them, which ultimately made the difference. Grand Canyon played some tough defense and forced Bama to shoot under 40% from the field, but the Crimson Tide made six more three-pointers, and that helped seal the victory. The difference here is Carolina has a top 25 defense, while Bama has a defense ranked in the 250s. Both teams can rebound and shoot the three, so the game will be settled on the defensive side of the ball. Which team will keep the other off the three-point line? I always say that the 4.5 line means the dog will win outright or the favorite will roll them. I think Carolina will win and cover. Almost every +4.5 dog last weekend won outright, except for Colorado vs. Marquette and Gonzaga killed KU. This will tick to -5 UNC.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5 (-110) [via DraftKings]
9:20pm cst: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa State -1.5; Total 146.5
We will have a classic offense vs. defense matchup and somethings gotta give. Washington State played Iowa State a lot closer than I thought. It took awhile for the Cyclones offense to get going. Illinois will have an offense who is red hot but they will be going up against one of the best defenses in the country. Terrance Shannon Jr. has played out of his mind not only the the first two rounds but to close out the season. Will Iowa State be able to make their threes against an almost nonexistent Illinois defense? And how will Illinois handle the Iowa State defense for 40 minutes? In a coin flip game I rather take the team that plays defense and can rebound. My main factor here is, Iowa State at least has a competent offense, which is more than what I can say for the Illinois defense. Give me the battle tested defensive team with some size that can also score.
Pick: Iowa State -1.5 (-108) [via DraftKings]