College Hoops Wednesday
HC Mark Adams and his Texas Tech Red Raiders host West Virginia in what may be their last chance to turn their season around.
Last night was not as good as it should have been as we finished (3-5) now at 49%. Not due to bad bounces but getting off on our reads on some of these matchups. We leaned too heavily on situations rather than the actual handicaps of the teams. The games we had solid reads on - we won. Let’s get back to that today.
Xavier Musketeers (+6.5) vs. UCONN Huskies; total 151.5; 5:30pm ct
We’ve been bangin’ this gong all season - UCONN is overrated and overvalued in the market. If you put this team in a different uniform that says “Wisconsin” no way they would be laying 7.5 to Xavier so let’s dig deeper. UCONN’s strength is its big men: Sonogo & Clingan. They outrebounded Xavier 38 to 31 and more importantly 13 to 4 on the offensive glass. Not only did they out rebound Xavier but they out shot them beyond the arc. UCONN made 13 3PT to Xavier’s 4. Normally any team that wins these battles should win the game running away, so why did UCONN get beat fairly easily? Fouls & turnovers - UCONN’s kryptonite. Xavier shot 28 (!) FTs and shot 82%. You see this trend in almost every UCONN box score. This team has the potential to dominate the Big East but are no where near the top. Too many points here so give me Xavier and Sean Miller’s tough coaching.
Georgia Bulldogs (+16.5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers; total 134.5; 6:00pm ct
The Vols host the Georgia Bulldogs but they also have the University of Texas coming to town for the Big 12 / SEC Showdown. We’ve recently talked about how undervalued the Bulldogs are. They dropped a home game to Vandy, which was a bad loss for them. This number is crazy high with the Longhorns on deck. For reference, Tennessee was favored at home by 16.5 vs. Vanderbilt with Kentucky on deck. They only beat Vandy by nine. Georgia is 8-1 ATS its last nine vs. Tennessee. Give me them Dogs from Athens.
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5); total 141.5; 6:00pm
I expect a dog fight in Lubbock tonight. Loser is at the bottom of the Big 12 - the best conference in the country. WVU is still in play for a tournament spot while Tech is trying to claw its way back into the conversation. Finally, the Red Raiders have their chance to make a statement and try to turn their season around. This game has been marked on their calendar. I expect a big performance from the Red Raiders and HC Mark Adams will have ‘um up and ready to go.
St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. George Washington Colonials (-4); total 150; 6:00pm ct
The hunter now becomes the hunted. Big game tonight in the Atlantic 10 especially for the Colonials. George Washington will be favored in its first A10 game after whippin’ up on the Dayton Flyers Saturday. St. Joes’s is riding a three game winning streak playing great defense. Except the Hawks have been playing great defense against lesser competition. Colonials have been flexing its offense against the best in the league this season. St. Joe’s had a tough time stopping UMASS on Saturday and I feel they will have trouble with a better offense in the Colonials. Give me the hot offense at home laying a short number.
Butler Bulldogs vs. Providence Friars (-10); total 138.5; 7:30pm ct
Providence was as hot as any team in the Big East but had a rough stretch playing on the road losing 2 of its last 3 only defeating DePaul in a tough game. Butler’s Manny Bates appears to be out indefinitely. The Bulldogs have been struggling without him especially away from home. No look ahead spot on the horizon so I like the Friars here due for a big game at home.
Other games to watch tonight:
Houston Cougars (-9.5) vs. UCF Knights; total 127.5; 6:00pm ct
The Cougars are coming off of their 2nd loss of the season to Temple, which was a dead even game but shooting 50% from the stripe cost Houston. The Cougars off a loss may be scary for the Knights. The spread in the first matchup was Houston -15.5 at home and the Cougs won that game 71-65. A huge move off of that number. UCF has not impressed since that game with either losses or tight wins. UCF stood toe to toe with Houston and is now coming off a two game losing streak. For me, I feel this number is an over correction. UCF two game losing streak cancels out with U of H coming off a home loss. I lean the Cougars here waiting to see how this line progresses.
South Florida Bulls vs. Temple Owls (-6); total 139.5; 6:00pm ct
USF has won 2 of its last 3 and now travels to take on the AAC 2nd place Temple Owls. Temple just defeated Houston on Sunday so I expect there to be a hangover. I feel this number should be around 3/4 points. The Bulls have had success against the Owls on the road going 5-1 ATS its last 6. I lean South Florida here.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-3); total 148.5; 6:00pm ct
This should be a great ACC game with Pitt hosting Wake Forest. Both teams have tough games ahead. These teams are about even but Pitt has a better defense. Pitt also plays strong at home especially as a favorite. Winner stays in the top 3 of the ACC. I lean the home team here with the underappreciated Panthers.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Maryland Terrapins (-4.5); total 123.5; 6:00pm ct
In what should be a good Big 10 matchup there’s an interesting number posted on this game. Last week at home Maryland laid 2.5 points against Michigan and had a strong performance. Now, two more points are tacked on. If Maryland plays defense the way they did against Michigan and Purdue they will have success. The Terps can be stagnant on offense so it is vital their pressure defense creates offensive opportunities for easy points. It’s a tough game because you don’t know which team will show up for either side.
Northwestern Wildcats (-2) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers; total 130.5; 6:00pm ct
After a week off from covid Northwestern held onto a home win against Wisconsin. It was a dead even game except NW made their FTs shooting 89% compared to Wisconsin’s 56%. Nebraska has a very good home court advantage posting a 7-2 record thus far. With an almost common opponent I lean to the Huskers.
George Mason Patriots vs. VCU Rams (-8); total 138.5; 6:00pm ct
VCU and its defense have been an absolute buzzsaw in the Atlantic 10 but George Mason has had recent success against the Rams. I feel like VCU is the right side here with the way they have been playing but I’m not too sure I want to lay this number with the Patriots recent success. Pass for me.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers (-4); total 137.5; 8:00pm ct
We have a big SEC game tonight when Auburn hosts A&M with the winner remaining in 2nd place in conference standings. Both teams love to play tough defense so do not be surprised if we have a rock fight tonight. A&M has played Auburn tough especially on the road. This number is about right. Auburn beat Florida at home by 3 points and the spread was 5.5. The Aggies are a dead even team with the Gators so you could look at it as Aggies should be the play here getting points. Tight line so pass for me but I will be watching!
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Creighton Blue Jays (-10.5); total 152.5; 8:00pm ct
The Johnnies are coming off of a bad loss last Friday at home to Villanova. The team went ice cold and the Nova veteran guards took control of the game at the end. Creighton is red hot, healthy and climbing its way back up the Big East mountain. This number makes sense with the Blue Jays at home in their recent form but they do have Xavier on deck a possible look ahead. I lean to the Johnnies in this one but not a play for me based on St. John’s last performance. I’m hesitant but like getting double digits here.
Indiana Hoosiers (-10.5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers; total 136.5; 8:00pm ct
Hoosiers are surging in the Big 10 right now while the Gophers have are on a 3 game losing steak. Indiana is laying double digits here, rightfully so. The Golden Gophers are not a good home team and they struggle against teams with size. I don’t expect any sleep walking from Indiana or Trayce Jackson-Davis who has thrown his hat into the Player of the Year conversation. I lean heavily to Indiana.
Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-7); total 145.5; 10:00pm ct
Great late night Mountain West matchup in the Viejas Arena. Utah State has veteran guards but they are finesse. SDST love to get in your face and play tough, physical defense. This is a high number here but the Aztecs have dominated and won by double digits their last 2 meetings at home. I lean SDST but they didn’t make the card due to the struggles covering conference games over 5 points.
Good luck to us.
