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College Football WIns Matchups Market

Photo Credit: The Salt Lake Tribune

I was scrolling through DraftKings’ College Football odds today and came across an interesting betting market: Wins - Matchups. I was expecting to see extremely lopsided odds, but they are fair with a few good opportunities. Remember, these are future bets on season win totals.

Let’s get into it.

  • Tennessee Volunteers (-120) vs. Memphis Tigers (+100)

The Memphis Tigers are getting a lot of respect this season in the betting market. The Tigers’ win total for the season is nine, but it’s juiced to the under. Memphis will face some tough road matchups against Florida State, Navy, UTSA, and Tulane. None of these are guarantees, including a road game against a much-improved South Florida team. Memphis’ issues have always been on the defensive side of the football. Because of their defense, none of these games are automatic victories.

Now, for the Volunteers, they obviously have a tougher road to hoe in the SEC. If QB Nico Iamaleava is as good as I believe he will be, then the Volunteers are in for a big season. We will have a great idea regarding the talent on this team when they face off against North Carolina State in Week 2. If they can get past the Wolfpack, they will have favorable road matchups against Oklahoma and Arkansas. The Vols have Bama at home, and we know what happened the last time we saw that matchup in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee does play Georgia on the road, and I have that chalked up as a loss. I’m more comfortable with Tennessee’s road games than Memphis’. There is too much respect for Memphis this season, and I’m not buying it. I believe Iamaleava will be one of the best QBs this season, and Memphis’ defense is too much of a liability.

Play: Tennessee MORE WINS Than Memphis (-120) [via DraftKings]

  • UConn Huskies (-125) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (+105)

The Boilermakers will be dealing with some turnover this season. UConn, however, has their eyes set on a big season. Purdue returns Hudson Card at QB, but not much else. They will also have one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Huskies have a more manageable schedule with more talent, in my opinion. This number is a gift

Play: UConn MORE WINS Than Purdue (-125) [via DraftKings]

  • Utah Utes (-125) vs. Florida State Seminoles (+105)

Utah is setting up to have one of their best teams in quite some time. They have also been strong the past couple of years, but as long as Cam Rising is healthy, they will be great. The Utes have a manageable schedule where, if Rising is healthy, I only see them losing on the road to Oklahoma State. You will read in our 2024 Football Almanac that we are not high on FSU due to the immense loss of talent from last season. This price is completely wrong based on schedule alone. Total mismatch of talent.

Play: Utah Utes MORE WINS Than Florida State (-125) [via DraftKings]

  • Iowa Hawkeyes (-360) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (+260)

We have come across some crazy numbers, but this one by far is the craziest. A team with no quarterback like Iowa should not be favored by -360 against a team like Kentucky. Iowa will struggle this season because of their quarterback play, and they will need to win every single home game to have a decent season. Kentucky has more manageable home games and a weaker schedule, in my opinion. Even if Kentucky was favored here, I would still be taking it, but at +260? Impossible to turn it down

Play: Kentucky MORE WINS Than Iowa (+260) [via DraftKings]

  • Oklahoma Sooners (-120) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+100)

If only we could get this as a regular season matchup again. We are not high on OU this season. They should have another strong defense, but with a retooled offensive line and Jackson Arnold taking over at QB, I don’t have faith. Nebraska, on the other hand, finally has a QB in Dylan Raiola. At least I believe Raiola will live up to the hype. I’m not too sure about the Patrick Mahomes mimicking, but you might as well hold yourself up to the highest standard. Oklahoma will have a juggernaut of an SEC schedule. I like Nebraska’s schedule. It’s manageable, especially their home games. At plus money, this is another steal based on QB and schedule.

Play: Nebraska MORE WINS Than Oklahoma (+100) [via DraftKings]

  • Appalachian State Mountaineers (-145) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (+125)

The Sun Belt is shaping up to be a toss-up this season, with plenty of teams around the same quality. App State also has some tough home games, including having to face Liberty. They also face Clemson and East Carolina on the road, which I have them losing. They will also have rivalry games against Marshall and Coastal Carolina on the road. It’s a brutal schedule. North Carolina doesn’t have a cakewalk for a schedule, but it’s not as difficult as App State’s. They do have a few coin flip games like: at Duke, at Virginia, vs. GT, at FSU, and vs. NC State. I do have them losing Week 1 to Minnesota, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. This price is off, in my opinion, by a wide margin due to that App State schedule

Play: North Carolina MORE WINS Than App State (+125) [via DraftKings]