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I am sure Spartan fans are hopeful that some improvement will be made this season. With the pedigree of the Michigan State football program there is some belief that steps in the right direction will be made following a lackluster losing season in ‘22. I have my doubts that Michigan State will improve their win total… at all. In fact, I think there is a good chance that Michigan State has an even worse record than they did last season. Let’s look back at the last couple of seasons of Sparty football.

Michigan State enjoyed a ton of success in 2021. The Spartans won double digit games for the first time since 2017. One of these wins was against its archrival Michigan in a 37-33 come from behind thriller. In the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, the Spartans defeated the Pittsburgh Panthers, the ACC champions who were missing their starting QB and first-round draft prospect Kenny Pickett. This was the first time the Spartans won 11 or more games since their appearance in the College Football Playoff in 2015. The Spartans looked like they were on the rise again. Mel Tucker looked like he had brought back that swagger to East Lansing but then 2022 happened. The Spartans ranked in the top 30 in total returning production but that production did not show itself on the field.

After finishing (11-2) in the 2021 season Michigan State followed up with a (5-7) 2022 campaign. The loss of its star player Kenneth Walker III from the previous season was a setback, but the team’s decline was still surprising. A year ago, Sparty fans were confident that Mel Tucker would lead them to glory, but now they are starting to doubt the direction of the football program.

The absence of Kenneth Walker III was felt in 2022. Walker was the nation’s leader in yards after contact in 2021 with 1,168 out of his 1,636 total yards. That means he gained 70% of his yards after breaking a tackle. The Heisman candidate also had an amazing 25 runs of 10 or more yards after contact. This level of performance was hard to replicate. It didn’t matter if Walker returned or not, these kinds of things rarely happen. This became evident in 2022. Without Walker’s talent behind a mediocre offensive line, the rushing offense plummeted. Michigan State ranked 111th in the country in rushing offense, a stark contrast to the Kenneth Walker show in 2021. The passing offense, however, was not too bad in 2022.

The passing offense was the bright spot for Michigan State in 2022. The team ranked 58th in total passing offense and quarterback Payton Thorne ranked 38th in total quarterback ratings. He was supported by two talented receivers, Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman. However, all three of them are gone for 2023. Thorne and Coleman transferred to Auburn and Florida State, while Reed entered the NFL draft. Reed and Coleman combined for 44% of the team’s receiving yards last season, and only one returning wideout had more than 10 catches. The candidates to replace Thorne, who threw 94% of the team’s passes, are Noah Kim and Katin Houser. They have very little experience, having thrown only 21 passes between them. Kim completed 73% of his passes with 3 TDs and no INTs, but he only played in garbage time against Ohio State and Minnesota, two of Michigan State’s worst losses, and threw two passes in a blowout win over Akron.

Kim was a three-star recruit and Houser was an ESPN 300 recruit in the 2022 class. They have some potential as quarterbacks, but they are very inexperienced. The same goes for the receivers. Of course, potential is not enough to win games. Every team has some potential. Michigan State will need more than that in 2023, as they face one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Sparty will have a brutal schedule in 2023. They will probably face four top 15 teams: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Washington. They will also have to play Iowa, Minnesota, Rutgers and Indiana on the road, all of which are beatable but not easy. After September 23rd their only remaining home games are Michigan and Nebraska. That’s a tough schedule. And if Michigan State doesn’t sort out their quarterbacks, receivers and offensive line, it could be a long and painful season.