New Year’s Day - CFP Handicaps
Photo Credit: College Football Playoff
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College Football Record: 113-108-8 . Betting 1 Unit to Win X.
11:00am cst: Wisconsin Badgers vs. LSU Tigers -9; Total 57.5
What we know coming into this game is that LSU QB Jayden Daniels will NOT be playing but his top receivers from this season will be suited up with QB Garrett Nussmeier. LSU finished the season hot but they had a manageable schedule .with Daniels at QB. LSU’s issue all season has been their defense and their inability to stop anyone. Wisconsin will be without QB Tanner Mordecai but the backup freshman Braedyn Locke from Rockwall, Texas can sling it a bit. The Badgers will also be without their All-American RB Braelon Allen so I expect Wisconsin to try and air it out a bit more to test the LSU defense. I think this Wisconsin defense will be game to defend the LSU attack and try to build on next season. If this Wisconsin defense can make some plays I can see them covering this game and possibly winning it.
Pick: Wisconsin -9 (-110) [via DraftKings]
12:00pm cst: Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks -18; Total 68.5
Oregon came up short in the Pac-12 Championship and missed out on a potential College Football Playoff appearance. Where will their motivation be today and will they take this matchup seriously against the Flames? Usually the G5 schools that get the opportunity to play with the big boys almost always show up. This Liberty squad has been great on both sides of the ball all season. They can throw it and they have a very tough running game. I really like this Liberty team and I would not be surprised if this game is a shootout also if Liberty won outright. Liberty is about 6.25/1 on the ML.
Pick: Liberty +18 (-110) [via DraftKings]
12:00pm cst: Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 vs. Iowa Hawkeyes; Total 36
It was in the news this past week that Tennessee QB Joe Milton was opting out, which will give way to the highly touted freshman Nico Iamaleava. He did not get very much playing time this season but I would imagine he will be the #1 starter next season. Iowa’s problem all season has been their inability to put the ball into the end zone. Iowa’s QB Deacon Hill is literally the worst QB in college football based on his statistics. The Tennessee offense should be able to use their speed to spread out Iowa and take advantage. The Vols also have a pretty stingy defense and I expect them to have a strong game against this Iowa offense. I do not agree with the line movement in this game. I’m laying it with the more talented team especially on offense.
Pick: Tennessee -5.5 (-112) [via DraftKings]
4:00pm cst: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines -1.5; Total 45
It is finally time for the Grand Daddy of Them All in Pasadena, California between a couple storied programs. This line does not make any sense to me. Michigan has been able to beat up on the very weak Big 10 all season without any quality wins unless you count Ohio State. Alabama on the other hand has been great and are hotter than anyone. The Crimson Tide are at full health and led by QB Jalen Milroe. Michigan has not faced an athlete or quarterback like Milroe all season. Michigan struggled with TCU’s athleticism last year in the CFP and I expect that to happen once again. I love Alabama in this game and big. I could see Jim Harbaugh leaving to the NFL as well. I just cannot make a good argument for Michigan in this game. They will not have the athletes or talent like Alabama. The Wolverines will need to force Milroe to stay in the pocket and then force turnovers. This is a terrible matchup for Michigan plain and simple. When Michigan faced Georgia I thought that was one of the Wolverines’ best teams in a very long time and the Bulldogs absolutely kicked their teeth in. Nothing is getting in Bama’s way to have a potential rematch against Texas.
As a wise man once said, “them boys ain’t ready”.
Pick: Alabama ML (+105) [via DraftKings]
7:50pm cst: Texas Longhorns -4 vs. Washington Huskies; Total 63.5
We should be in for a great game in the Sugar Bowl. This will be a rematch of last year’s Alamo Bowl game where the Huskies took home the victory 27-20. Except, this is a much different and improved Longhorns team. There is great matchups all over the place in this one and it will start in the trenches. Texas probably has the best offensive and defensive line in the country full of NFL talent. Washington is pretty salty themselves but they are not on the same level as Texas. So, what are some of Washington’s strengths then? It all starts at QB with Michael Pennix Jr. and his WRs. The Huskies offensive line will have to hold up long enough for Pennix to get the ball out to his wideouts. His quick release will be a huge advantage. When Pennix gets pressured he is more prone to make mistakes and when he has time to throw he can pick defenses apart. He usually has a clean pocket making it much easier to get the ball to his explosive WRs. Like Washington, Texas has some of the best weapons in the country all over the offensive side of the ball. The Huskies have long corners that are great in coverage but if there is no pass rush they could get into trouble. Washington was only able to sack Bo Nix a total of three times in two games. In Quinn Ewers worst game of the season against Oklahoma he was sacked five times. There is a good chance this game is going to come down to pass rush, sacks and obviously turnovers.
I believe the Texas running game is one of the best in the country with a stable of running backs behind that massive offensive line. This is important to mention because Oregon averaged 6 yards per carry on the ground in the Pac-12 Championship. I believe Texas will use the ground game to open up the passing game for Ewers, which will also help with the pass protection. This will definitely be the best team that Washington has faced all season and a huge step up in competition. Texas played Alabama on the road and was victorious. Yes, it was early in the season but that was still a solid Bama team.
Aside from the quarterbacks, pass rush and turnovers I believe the other main focus in this game with be the coaches and their experience. Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is not as experienced as Steve Sarkisian. Sark has big game experience and after last season’s loss to Washington I expect him to be very locked in. Sarkisian’s biggest enemy is himself. Sometimes he gets too cute with play calling when it is completely unnecessary (goal line sequence against Oklahoma). I have a strong feeling of this Longhorns team is extremely focused after reading some press conference quotes from both the players and coaches.
If Texas brings a strong pass rush and keeps Quinn Ewers pocket clean, which I expect, they will have a successful night. I see Texas using the running game to open up the pass and to also help keep Quinn Ewers stay clean in the pocket. This Longhorns team has so much talent across the board and now this is the moment they have been waiting for. It’s one of those games where if are having a draft, how long will it be until you start choosing a Washington player, especially on the defensive side of the ball? Having strong NFL talent makes a difference, just ask those Georgia and Alabama National Championship teams. Washington’s key to victory is pressure Ewers and force him to turn the ball over. If this is a shootout, I am betting on UT to grind down Washington and force the first turnover that flips the game. Texas does have experience coming back after digging themselves into a hole with turnovers (vs. Bama, Oklahoma & K-State). How will Washington handle adversity if it were to arise?
We have Sarkisian against his former employer, wanting revenge against Washington and that ultimate goal of winning a National Championship is so close. This Texas revenge tour is not over. I think this will be a tight game until UT eventually breaks this UW team down. It’s Texas all the way for me.
Pick: Texas -4 (-110) [via DraftKings]
