Florida Gators: 3x in a Row?
Photo Credit: USA Today
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I don’t see it with Florida this season. I just am not impressed with the current roster of the Florida Gators – particularly on offense. I don’t love the depth of the offensive line, the whole receiving corps outside of one player, or the whole quarterback room. I do at least love the running backs. Let’s get started on why I think the Gators are finishing with their third straight losing season and why they could miss out completely on a bowl bid.
On the offensive line, the Gators lost four starters, including two to the transfer portal – one of whom is starting at their new school (Michael Tarquin at USC) and the other one (Ethan White - USC as well) likely would have been had it not been for an injury situation that could keep him from playing football further. The other two, Richard Gouraige and O’Cyrus Torrence, are now on NFL rosters. This means Florida lost a ton of quality from last year’s offensive line. While this year’s offensive line has some good pieces to work with in experienced center Kingsley Eguakun (1,747 career snaps) and 2022 Freshman All-American tackle Austin Barber, now the incumbent starter at left tackle, the rest of the offensive line will be filled with either underclassmen and/or transfers. Florida brought in four transfers: Micah Mazzccua, Lyndell Hudson Jr., Damieon George Jr., and Kiyaunta Goodwin. George Jr. and Goodwin don’t have much starting experience, however. Muzzccua and Hudson Jr. have experience and upside. Mazzccua, a transfer from Baylor, graded out as the second-best guard in the Big 12 last season according to Pro Football Focus. Hudson Jr., a transfer from FIU, has allowed just five sacks across 878 pass-blocking snaps in his career. It will be interesting to see how Hudson Jr. transitions to tougher competition in the SEC. No matter what starting five the Gators end up with, regression seems inevitable given the talent they lost and the non-immediate upside from most of the offensive line room.
The receiver room leaves much to be desired at the moment. Ricky Pearsall is by far the most experienced receiver. Of the twelve receivers listed on the roster, nine of them are either freshmen or sophomores. Of the three upperclassmen, one of them (Daniel Cross) has never even seen the field. One of the two other upperclassmen (Ja’Quavion Fraziars) has 11 receptions in his whole Gator career. Pearsall, a senior this fall, had over 600 yards receiving last year with five touchdowns. The nine other receivers are underclassmen, including five who have yet to catch a pass. The four who have college production have caught a combined 23 passes. I guess what I am trying to say is that this is a very inexperienced receiving room.
The ability that QB Anthony Richardson had last season to make something happen when a play was not there was unmatched. Graham Mertz simply does not have the athletic ability of Richardson. Few human beings on this planet have Richardson’s athletic capabilities, so that is no knock on Mertz. It’s just Anthony Richardson’s ability to improvise with his feet was so valuable to Florida’s offense last year. Richardson had over 600 yards rushing in 2022 with nine touchdowns. Mertz, meanwhile, currently has –21 rushing yards in his career. Mertz is simply not a running threat, while Richardson was the running threat king. Complete difference in the makeup of these quarterbacks. Why do I bring this up? Billy Napier teams usually have a quarterback who can at the very least threaten a defense with their feet. In three of Billy Napier’s seasons at Louisiana, he had a true dual-threat quarterback. From 2019 to 2021, Levi Lewis finished with 873 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
In Billy’s first year in Gainesville, he had a quarterback in Richardson who fit the Napier offense perfectly. With a quality and experienced offensive line in place, the rushing offense flourished, finishing top 25 in the country averaging 200 yards per game. The running back room was good last year and it should only be better this season. The 1-2 punch of Montrell Johnson (transfer from Louisiana) Jr. and Trevor Etienne combined for over 1,500 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns last year, making up one of the best running back tandems in the country. But it is noteworthy that these running backs will not have a true dual-threat quarterback leading the show. Oh yeah, and the offensive line has questions with four starters from last year’s bunch gone. With the questions at quarterback, offensive line and receiver, I have my doubts about this offense. And the defense doesn’t leave me with a ton of confidence either.
The Gators are 118th in the country in returning production. Only five Power five teams rank lower. One of those five being Alabama. With such a young team with so many questions and such a difficult schedule, I do not see how they can finish with a winning record or even make a bowl game. If Florida does find a way to get to .500, it’ll be because of the following: They find ways to slow down games, rely on the size of their offensive and defensive lines (seems that’s what Napier is attempting here with the portal additions), and have great in-game management, playing in a phone booth and winning the close games. It should be noted that Billy Napier is 19-6 in one-score games in his head coaching career. So, if Florida makes a bowl game, they’ll have multiple (probably three to four) one-score wins. But that means players are performing well in the clutch (hard to ask a bunch of youngsters to be consistently clutch in big moments) and Florida wins most of their toss-up road games. That is a lot to ask for and I don’t see that happening. It is hard for me to sit here and type that Florida will find a way to make a bowl game. As crazy as this will sound to some, I think Florida will finish with their third straight losing season. That has not happened in Gainesville since 1945-1947.