CFB Week 7: Saturday Handicaps
Photo Credit: The Oklahoman
College Football Season Record (37-35-1) [+0.47 units]
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11:00AM CST: Washington Huskies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes -3; Total 41.5
This game will come down to points. Can Washington move the football against this Iowa defense? Can Iowa score enough points today? I was waiting all week to get a +3 with Washington. The Huskies are a little undervalued. They played a great game against Rutgers but missed FGs and turnovers killed them, and Rutgers escaped with the win. It’s always hard to trust an Iowa offense. They can’t throw! Washington has a solid defense, and they can move the football, which they proved against that Michigan defense. Tough road game, but I’ll take the FG with this offense. Let’s see if this is a flat spot for the Huskies or not. I’m betting they’ll be up for it. Only take the +3.
Play: Washington +3 (-115) [via DraftKings]
2:30PM CST: Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 vs. USC Trojans; Total 51.5
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2:30PM CST: Texas Longhorns -15.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners; Total 49
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One of the biggest rivalries in college football makes its SEC debut on Saturday, and I cannot wait. In this particular meeting, history has shown that it is not kind to the #1 ranked team in the country in this matchup. Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian has been quiet regarding who will be starting at quarterback. We don’t know the status of Quinn Ewers, but Arch Manning has filled in nicely for the Longhorns.
Texas isn’t the only team that has been going through a quarterback change or transition. After Oklahoma blew the game against Tennessee, head coach Brent Venables made the correct call to move on from Jackson Arnold to Michael Hawkins Jr. Against Auburn, Hawkins Jr. led a courageous comeback that gave the Sooners some positive momentum heading into the bye week.
If you watched Oklahoma against Tennessee and Auburn, it is as clear as day that the Sooners have one of the toughest defenses in the country. One might think that Michigan had a tough defense and Texas destroyed them, but I was never high on the Michigan defense. The Wolverines also didn’t have much of an offense to challenge the Longhorns. Texas has one of the best offenses in the country, but so did Tennessee when they faced the Sooners. If Ewers plays, he will be coming off an injury, which hasn’t always been best for him. It’s hard to believe, but Arch Manning is still young and inexperienced, and this will be the biggest game of his life to date. The same goes for Hawkins Jr.
Texas will have revenge on its mind, but in the last ten years, there have been three double-digit underdogs that have covered in this rivalry. Texas covered as +10.5 underdogs in 2019, +13.5 in 2016, and won outright in 2015 as +16.5 underdogs. In one of the most hated rivalries in all of sports, throw the numbers out the window. I think this Oklahoma defense makes this game messy. Texas can blow out the Sooners, but after a bye week, with a QB being tested (injury or inexperience), and the fact it’s the Red River Rivalry with playoff seeding on the line, I feel like we are going to be treated to a battle that stays tight. This number is predicated on what Texas did to Michigan. Throw the numbers out the window. In a rivalry that is always a pick’em, I’ll gladly take the two touchdowns.
Play: Oklahoma +17 (-110) [via DraftKings]
2:30PM CST: Cal-Berkeley vs. Pitt Panthers -3.5; Total 58
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2:30PM CST: Louisville Cardinals -7 vs. Virginia Cavaliers; Total 54.5
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3:00PM CST: Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars -2.5; Total 48
This should be a great Big 12 matchup. The Arizona Wildcats have been unimpressive this season. It makes sense after losing some key players and a great head coach. I thought they would be able to take care of business against a Texas Tech team at home, but they couldn’t slam the door shut. Arizona turns the ball over too many times for my liking. What does BYU love to do? Force turnovers! This BYU defense has been feasting this year. After a bye week, I am expecting this BYU defense to turn it on once again and pick up where they left off. I don’t understand the line movement taking Arizona from 5.5 down to 2.5. This has swung much too far. Let’s go Soakin’!
Play: BYU -2.5 (-115) [via DraftKings]
4:00PM CST: Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. UL Monroe Warhawks -6.5
This is a weekly fade of Southern Miss.
Play: UL Monroe -6.5 (-112) [via DraftKings]
6:30PM CST: Ohio State Buckeyes -3 vs. Oregon Ducks; Total 54
What a treat that we have these two in the same conference. Finally, some real competition for both schools. Ohio State has a video game offense, which is why they are favored in a night game at Autzen Stadium. Welcome to the Autzen Zoo, Buckeyes. Who has Ohio State beaten in a meaningful game? Penn State? Give me a break. I know this is a new team, but is Will Howard ready to sling the rock on the road? I don’t think so. I hope Dan Lanning has learned from his poor coaching decisions against Washington (both games) last season that cost Oregon a CFP appearance. He is overaggressive in situations he shouldn’t be. Unfortunately, I think that is just going to be his toxic trait. He is more emotional than cerebral. I am still taking Oregon in this game because they are getting points at home in a night game. They have the offense and skill players to go band for band with the Buckeyes. In a mostly even game, give me the points. Whichever QB makes the least amount of mistakes will win.
Play: Oregon +3 (-110) [via DraftKings]
6:30PM CST: Ole Miss REbels -3.5 vs. LSU Tigers; Total 62.5
This game was a mess last year. The Rebels won and took advantage of a terrible LSU defense. The Tigers have improved slightly since then. They aren’t perfect on defense, but they are better than last season. Ole Miss played a decent game against South Carolina last weekend. It’s important to note that LSU is coming off a bye week while Ole Miss has played seven straight weeks. A night game in Baton Rouge just smells like an "upset." Wrong team favored. Nussmeier and Jaxon Dart will either make some NFL money tonight or lose a lot of it for not showing up. Give me this rested Tigers team with Brian Kelly’s job on the line.
Play: LSU +3.5 (-110) [via DraftKings]
Stay Tuned for the Debauchery Hours Plays:
Florida vs. Tennessee
Iowa State vs. West Virginia
Minnesota vs. UCLA
Kansas State vs. Colorado
Boise State vs. Hawaii
