Power Four Championship Road Map
Photo Credit: Sporting News
Only two weeks remain in the college football regular season. Between the four power conferences, only Oregon has clinched a spot in their respective championship. Additionally, in every P4 conference, a first-year member has the opportunity to win their division. Because the winner of each P4 championship is granted an automatic bye in the new twelve-team college football playoff, a conference championship has never been so important. Here's what each contender needs to happen in order to make their championship game.
ACC
SMU
The SMU Mustangs are undefeated through their first six games in the ACC. Sitting at the top of the conference, SMU arguably has the easiest remaining path to a P4 championship of any team in the country. SMU has an away game against Virginia (5-5) and a home game against Cal (5-5) left. Neither team is a slouch, despite both ranking amongst the bottom half of ACC teams. The Mustangs' dynamic offense, led by breakout quarterback Kevin Jennings (2198 Yds, 15 TD, 6 INT) and human highlight running back Brashard Smith (158 Att, 1026 Yds, 12 TD), can lead SMU to a clinch with a win against either team. Even if the Ponies go 1-1, they would win the tiebreaker against Clemson due to Clemson's loss to Louisville.
Miami
After starting 9-0, the Hurricanes' championship hopes are on the line thanks to their loss to Georgia Tech. At 5-1 in the conference, Miami has a home game against Wake Forest (4-6) and an away game against Syracuse (7-3). Because Clemson has played all of their ACC matchups and only lost once, Miami has two specific ways they can move on.
First, should the Hurricanes win out, they will make the ACC Championship over Clemson thanks to their early-season win against Louisville.
Should the Hurricanes lose either one of their matches, there is still hope: two losses from SMU would also allow Miami to sneak their way to Charlotte. Cam Ward (3494 Yds, 32 TD, 6 INT) and the Hurricanes are favored in both of their matchups, but an away matchup against Kyle McCord and the Syracuse Orange can't be taken lightly.
Clemson
Clemson has already finished play in the ACC and sits at 7-1, their lone conference defeat coming at the hands of the Louisville Cardinals. The loss hurts the Tigers tremendously, as both SMU and Miami won against Louisville, aiding in potential tiebreakers. With that being said, there is still a path for Clemson. Should SMU lose out, Clemson and Miami would meet in the championship for the first time since 2017. Additionally, if Miami loses against either Wake Forest or Syracuse, Clemson will be in. In a more complicated route, should SMU lose to Virginia but beat Cal, Clemson could potentially win the fourth tiebreaker. Because they would have an equal record, equal record against shared conference opponents, and no shared non-conference opponents, it would move onto combined conference opponent records. SMU currently holds the edge in this, but should NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest finish the season strong, Clemson could slide into the second spot of the ACC Championship.
Big Ten
Oregon
The Oregon Ducks is already in the College Football Playoff. Only seeding remains for the Ducks.
Indiana
Indiana has continued their miracle season through week eleven, holding their first 10-0 record in program history. Their next game will be the Hoosiers' biggest challenge though—an away game at Ohio State (9-1), which is then followed by a much more favorable home matchup against Purdue (1-9), who is winless in the Big Ten. At 7-0 in the conference, they have two paths to join Oregon in the Big Ten title game. First, should Indiana win out, they will obviously join Oregon as the only remaining unbeaten team. If they lose to Ohio State, things become less likely, as the Hoosiers would have to beat Purdue and Michigan would have to beat Ohio State. The Hoosiers and the Buckeyes' defenses both rank in the top 10 of fewest points allowed per game (13.8 and 10.3, respectively), ensuring a slugfest this Saturday.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are the captains of their own destiny. Other than a narrow loss to Oregon, Ohio State has been as dominant as any team in the country. Their remaining games are against Indiana and Michigan (5-5), both of which the Buckeyes are favored in. Should they win out, Ohio State will get their rematch against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship. If they lose to Indiana, they’re out, but there’s minor room for error against Michigan. Should Ohio State fall to the Wolverines at home, they would need Penn State to lose either of their two remaining games. Currently, Ohio State holds the best odds of making the conference championship of the three remaining contenders. It’s up to Will Howard (2484 Yds, 24 TD, 5 INT) and receiver Jeremiah Smith (49 Rec, 865 Yds, 9 TD) to deny Indiana a continuation of their miracle run.
Penn State
Given that Penn State has a loss against Ohio State already, the 9-1 Nittany Lions need big losses from both Indiana and Ohio State to make the conference championship for the first time since 2016. First, Penn State must beat Minnesota (6-4) and Maryland (4-6). Should Penn State take care of business, they will need Ohio State to take down Indiana, but lose to Michigan. Should this happen, both Indiana and Penn State will be 8-1 in Big Ten play, and similar to the final scenario seen in the ACC, Penn State has an advantage over the Hoosiers in terms of conference opponent winning percentage (.522 to .462). Unless teams like Michigan State, Northwestern, and Nebraska have a great week 12 and 13 showing, it is unlikely that the percentages flip.
Big XII
BYU
Of the power conferences, the Big XII has the most teams with a chance for a championship berth at nine. BYU is the favorite of those nine, thanks to their 9-1 overall record and 6-1 record in conference. The easiest path for the Cougars is an away win against the newly ranked Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2) and a home game win against the University of Houston (4-6). Neither game is a cakewalk, but a loss to either team would drastically hurt BYU's chances. Should the Cougars go 1-1 to end the season, they would need either Colorado to lose both of their remaining games, or for both Iowa State to lose a game and for Arizona State to lose their final game to Arizona.
Colorado
The Buffaloes have an identical path to the conference championship as the BYU Cougars, with an easier strength of schedule in their remaining two games. They play Kansas (4-6) on the road, then the struggling Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-7) in Boulder. If Shadeur Sanders (3222 Yds, 27 TD, 7 INT) and Travis Hunter (74 Rec, 911 Yds, 3 INT) stay hot, it should be smooth sailing into the conference championship in Colorado's first Big 12 season. In the event Colorado stumbles and loses one, they would still go to the championship as long as Arizona State and Iowa State don't win out, and that BYU doesn't beat Houston.
Arizona State
As the biggest surprise of the Big 12, the Sun Devils have a realistic path to the conference championship. At 5-2, Arizona State still has to play BYU and Arizona (4-6). Winning both is the most surefire route for the Sun Devils, but there is technically still hope if they were to beat BYU and lose to Arizona. In order for this scenario to play out in the Sun Devils' favor, they would need Colorado to win out, BYU to lose to Houston, Iowa State to go 1-1, Kansas State to go 1-1, Baylor to go 1-1, Texas Tech to go at best 1-1, and West Virginia to go at best 1-1. It's a tricky tightrope to walk, and as such, star running back Cam Skattebo (198 Att, 1074 Yds, 11 TD) and the rest of the Sun Devils should shoot for the 7-2 finish in conference play.
Iowa State
Iowa State doesn't have the power to force themselves into the championship anymore, but should the cards unfold properly, the Cyclones could make it to Arlington. First, beating Utah (4-6) and Kansas State (7-3) are absolute musts. Then, BYU and Colorado must lose at least one game apiece. In this scenario, the Cyclones would earn either the first or second seed, depending on how Arizona State does against Arizona. Though the BYU Cougars are at par with the Cyclones in terms of record against common conference opponents (4-1), Iowa State holds a better conference opponent winning percentage than BYU and Colorado.
Baylor
By the time we reach Baylor in the standings, the scenarios for a conference championship berth become absurd. At 4-3 in the conference, Baylor would need to win out against Houston and Kansas. Then, at 6-3, the Bears would have to hope for a tie with multiple other members of the conference. Between Colorado and BYU, one program would have to go 0-2. Additionally, programs like Arizona State and Iowa State would have to lose at least one game. Thanks to their superior conference opponent win percentage, Baylor holds the tiebreaker against any of the above teams, as well as TCU, Kansas State, and Texas Tech.
Kansas State
Kansas State has the exact same scenario as Baylor, except that they need the Bears to lose at least one of their games. The Wildcats, who are 0-2 in November, desperately need a quick turnaround in their final two matches in Cincinnati (5-5) and Iowa State. Despite a great year from Avery Johnson (Stats), the Cyclones are considered favorites at home against the Wildcats. If Kansas State wins out to move to 6-3 in the Big 12, Baylor drops to at least 5-4, and the rest of Baylor’s scenario plays out, it will be K-State meeting either Colorado or BYU in the final.
Texas Tech / TCU / West Virginia
By some astonishing measure, none of these three teams have been mathematically eliminated from conference championship contention. Each requires specific results from 10+ games, including winning out and having massive upsets across the board. In the case of Texas Tech, they will have to end up in a 6-3 tie with BYU, Colorado, Baylor, Iowa State, Arizona State, and TCU. TCU would need a tie with Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Texas Tech, meaning that like Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs need the top two Big 12 teams to lose out. Finally, West Virginia needs BYU to win out, and to end up in a three-way tie at 6-3 with Colorado and TCU only. In that scenario, West Virginia gets the bid based on record versus common conference opponents.
SEC
Texas
The SEC is a bloodbath, with six teams having between 1-2 conference losses. However, at 5-1 in SEC play, the Longhorns are in prime position to make the championship in their first SEC season. Should the Longhorns win out against Kentucky (4-6) and Texas A&M (8-2), they're in. Though Texas is favored, a trip to Kyle Field against their historic rival is bound to be Texas's greatest challenge since their loss to Georgia. Should Texas lose to the Wildcats but beat the Aggies, they could still slide into the second seed if the only other 6-2 team was Georgia. This would entail losses by Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama. The third-ranked team in the country has the most to lose in week 14, risking a chance at crucial playoff seeding, bragging rights against Texas A&M, and their ticket to Atlanta for the conference championship.
Texas A&M
The Aggies, also 5-1 in the conference, have a similar situation to the Longhorns. They must win out to make the championship. They first have to beat the Auburn Tigers (4-6) on the road, and then defeat Texas at home. There is a second route for the Aggies, however. If Alabama loses a game, Ole Miss wins out, Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt, the Aggies would end up in the second seed. Even if Texas loses to Kentucky, giving the two schools an equal record, Texas A&M will have the edge, because Texas A&M has a better conference win percentage (.4375 to .4063). Assuming Marcel Reed (1129 Yds, 9 TD, 2 INT) mans the Aggies for the rest of the season, they will need him to step up in the biggest game of his career.
Alabama
Despite being at 4-2 in the SEC, Alabama still has strong odds to make the dance. They hold tiebreakers over both Texas and Texas A&M, meaning they will automatically be ranked higher than the loser should the Crimson Tide win out. Additionally, their early-season win against Georgia places them above the Bulldogs, and their conference opponent win percentage outranks any other contenders. As such, Alabama's path is simple: win, you're in. Their final games are against Oklahoma (5-5) in Norman, and Auburn in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are heavy favorites in each, giving them the highest odds of the two-loss teams to play in the conference championship.
Georgia
Georgia has completed all of their SEC games, concluding with a 6-2 record. There is a specific series of events that need to happen for the Bulldogs to play in the conference championship. Their win against Tennessee was huge for giving them the tiebreaker against the Volunteers, but with either Texas or Texas A&M likely to be a one-loss team, Georgia needs Alabama to drop one of their final two games. Against the Sooners and the Tigers it’s unlikely, but crazier things have happened. In a more unlikely scenario, Texas and Texas A&M losing their respective games before their week 14 clash. If that happened, Georgia would get the second seed behind Alabama, thanks to a better record and common conference opponents and head-to-head matchups.
Tennessee
The Volunteers are going to need a miracle to make the SEC championship. At 5-2, Tennessee's lone remaining SEC game is an away game against Vanderbilt (6-4). Assuming Tennessee wins, they will be at 6-2. In order to make the championship, three things need to happen: Texas A&M needs to lose out, Texas must lose to Kentucky but beat Texas A&M, and Alabama must lose a game. Should this happen, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and potentially Ole Miss will all be 6-2. Georgia will get the one seed because they beat both Texas and Tennessee. Tennessee would get the edge over Texas and Ole Miss because, in this scenario, only the Volunteers would have beaten Kentucky.
Ole Miss
Of all potential SEC championship candidates, the 4-2 Ole Miss Rebels need the most to go right for them to squeeze into the conference final. For starters, Ole Miss must win out against Florida (5-5) and Mississippi State (2-8). Mississippi State is winless in the SEC, but the Gators can be dangerous, especially with DJ Lagway (1297 Yds, 7 TD, 5 INT) under center. Should they round out the conference at 6-2, they need Alabama to lose at least one game, Texas A&M to lose out OR win out, Texas to win out OR lose out, and Tennessee to lose to Vanderbilt. In the event that either Texas or Texas A&M finishes at 7-1, it is essential that the other loses their week 13 matchup, as either would outrank Ole Miss in terms of conference opponent win percentage. With losses by Alabama and Tennessee, the only other 6-2 team would be Georgia, whom the Rebels beat. It would take a lot of upsets, meaning very little is left in the hands of Lane Kiffin and his star quarterback Jaxson Dart (3409 Yds, 22 TD, 4 INT).