The Big 12 Going Bonkers

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There has been Hardly any difference among the majority of the Big 12 since the Super Senior season of 2021. Let’s look back at the last couple seasons and what it could mean for the Big 12 in 2023. In 2021 Oklahoma State and Baylor played for the Big 12 Championship. The Cowboys finished that season (6-2) in one-score games and the Bears finished (4-1) in one-score games. Appropriately, the Conference Championship game between the two was decided by inches on the very last play. It was not just the Bears and Cowboys who played in close games during the 2021 season. The entire Big 12 was bonkers.

Think back to two years ago, remember how Iowa State was coming off a Big 12 Championship game appearance and returned a lot of, wait for it, super seniors, for the 2021 season? One might also remember how the Cyclones were in many people’s 2021 preseason top ten. The Cyclones would finish the 2021 season as one of the more disappointing teams, finishing with a (7-6) record. Despite this record, Iowa State still managed to finish ninth in the final ESPN power ratings! How is this possible? Well, the Cyclones are a whole other story in themselves, but this is what happens when you have a great roster but make it a habit to playh to your opponents’ level. Unfortunately for Iowa State, they finished the 2021 season (2-5) in one-score games. Go figure one of those “close wins” was against Oklahoma State.

The only teams that finished ahead of ESPN’s power rating’s beloved Cyclones were the two Big 12 championship game attendees and Oklahoma. The Sooners in 2021 also enjoyed some one-score-game-fortune as they finished with a (4-1) mark in conference play in such games {and (2-0) in the non-con for good measure}. While the top of the conference was extremely close so were a few other teams. Texas and West Virginia, who both had losing conference records finished a combined (5-7) in conference one-score games. That is an average of six one-score games between the two teams in just Big 12 games alone. Remember, the Big 12 plays nine conference games per season. Even Texas Tech, who fired its head coach midway through the season, managed to play in four one-score conference games, including against the soon to be crowned Big 12 Champion Baylor Bears. The only teams during the Big 12 in the super senior season that were not that competitive was a TCU team that seemed to have given up on Gary Patterson and poor ole Kansas. Oh, and the only team I have not discussed yet, Kansas State, finished with an average conference game margin of +1.9. Yes, you read that correctly. Less than a field goal difference per Big 12 matchup on average.

If one thought the Big 12 was fun to watch in 2021, the following year would provide one of the best CFB TV shows the Big 12 has come out with to date. The 2022 Big 12 TV show had a team finish the regular season undefeated and playing for a National Championship while playing in a bunch of close games. The 2022 Big 12 TV show also had the last place team in conference finish 1-8 in Big 12 play despite that team only losing by an average of a touchdown per conference contest. In addition to this, last year’s Big 12 conference race entertained viewers with 32 of the conference’s 45 regular season games having been within one possession entering the 4th quarter. Absolutely bonkers

Part 2:

Note: I only included conference games because of potential inflation from easier / harder non-conference slates.

2022 BIG TWELVE POINT DIFFERENTIAL PER CONFERENCE MATCHUP:

(In order of conference standings)

TCU: +14.11 (+8.8 if you throw out a no show from Iowa State in the season finale)

K State: + 12.5 (+7.2 not including banged up Ok State)

Texas: +12.4 (played healthier OK State)

Texas Tech: +0.66 (played healthier OK State)

Oklahoma State: -6.44 (including mid-season crash)

Baylor: -0.44 (played healthier OK State)

Oklahoma: -6.33 (-1.22 excluding games without Dillon Gabriel)

Kansas: -7.55

West Virginia: -11.33

Iowa State: -7.66 (-2.33 excluding no show to TCU to close out the season)

Like I mentioned earlier, Iowa State is a story in themself but there were multiple teams who were a few possessions away from a MUCH different conference record. The teams that stand out to me the most are TCU and Oklahoma. Everyone remembers the magical run the Horned Frogs endured in 2022. All those comeback wins and all the clutch plays to find ways to come out victorious. However, I do not think most realize just how close TCU was to having a (10-2) or (9-3) record. The Horned Frogs were (5-0) in one score games in the regular season and had two other Big 12 games against Texas Tech and Kansas State where they were trailing in the second half and had to come back to win. TCU beat West Virginia by 10 but was also 20 seconds away from beating the Mountaineers by only one score. And West Virginia finished with the worst ppg differential in conference play. Essentially, as long as it was not a non FBS team (Tarleton), the worst team in the power five (Colorado) or the best team in the country (Georgia) TCU was probably going to be in a close game. But they were most likely going to find a way to win (6-1 in one-score games last year). The only other games TCU was involved in that were not close were not close was Iowa State and Oklahoma. I can prove why that performance from the Cyclones was a no show. But Oklahoma’s numbers are just as interesting as TCU’s. TCU was the king of close games in 2022. Oklahoma was the exact opposite. The Sooners finished (0-5) in one score games to the tune of their first losing season of the 21st century. OU finished (6-7) after their one-score-bowl-loss to Florida State (yes, they almost beat FSU). The Sooners were the perfect definition of “a team better than their record.” five of their seven losses were by a single possession while the Sooners’ only decisive losses were to TCU and Texas without their starting quarterback in Dillon Gabriel for most of the TCU game and the whole Texas game. I do not think having Gabriel would have made a difference in the winner of those games, but I think, especially knowing how OU played in 2022, those games would have had MUCH different scores. It was very unfortunate for OU that Gabriel was out against two of the three best teams (based on standings and the numbers) in the Big 12.

I guess Oklahoma not having close game fortune in 2022 was payback or regression to the mean after going (6-1) in one score games in 2021. Baylor and Oklahoma State, like OU, were tremendous in one score games in 2021 and just like OU regressed to the mean in 2022 both suffering some of the bigger “disappointing seasons” in the country last season. Both the Bears and Cowboys were coming off double digit win seasons and both failed to simply finish ranked. What should be noted here is not so much the “regression to the mean” as much as the Big 12 itself. The last couple seasons there has not been much difference among practically all the teams as proven by the numbers I calculated.

So, when a Big 12 team has a breakthrough (especially recently), they most likely aren’t a TON better than their conference peers. They probably find ways to win close games. Over the last couple years, the biggest “ingredient” to breakthrough in the Big 12 has seemed to be experienced rosters. Oklahoma State and Baylor were both loaded with seniors in the “super senior season.” However, both ranked in the triple digits in returning production coming into the 2022 season. Neither had a lot of “experience” after their breakthrough seasons. Given that even in their breakthrough seasons Oklahoma State and Baylor were not that much better than their opponents and that both lost most of their production, regression seemed inevitable for both in 2022. And now for 2023, TCU is nearly in the triple digits in returning production (98th in the most updated returning production numbers) and ranks last in returning production in the Big 12. Coming off a season in which TCU was not much better than most of their opponents and now having to replace almost all the players responsible for the magical run, TCU could face major win regression similar to OSU and Baylor last season. And Oklahoma, especially given as manageable a schedule as they have in 2023, could have major win progression.

All of this said, the Big 12 is bonkers. There is simply not much difference among most of the teams in the conference. And with four new teams joining the Big 12 for this coming Fall, I expect the Big 12 to have quite the surprises in store for us in 2023.