College Football Preview Magazine:

Alabama may not be their usual self this season. It may or may not show in their overall record but I definitely think it will show in their style of play, eye test, and overall SEC PPG differential.

In 2008, Alabama took advantage of a down SEC West division as only they and Ole Miss had winning conference records. In 2009, it was the first Alabama National Championship under Nick Saban. From 2009 to 2012, Alabama rode tremendous defense and running game with some of the best offensive lines ever in the modern era of college football. During that 2009 to 2011 stretch out, Alabama had good game-managing quarterbacks in Greg McElroy and pre-upperclassman AJ McCarron.

In 2012, Alabama had everything: an experienced quarterback and a tremendous offensive line and defense along with an annually great running back room.

Also, it should be noted from 2009 to 2011, Alabama always had at least one go-to receiver, mostly Julio Jones and Marquis Maze. Then in 2012, we came to know Amari Cooper. Cooper would be the top guy for a few years. In 2013, AJ’s senior year, Alabama had one of their most balanced offensive attacks up to that point with four receivers over 30 catches and three receivers with over 500 yards. Oh yeah, and they still had the running game. Defense was not quite as strong (still great though) for the next few years.

Due to a weaker defense than in 2011 or 2012, a less efficient quarterback and a tough SEC road schedule, Alabama had one of its least impressive teams since 2008 in 2014. The team still made the playoff but lost to Ohio State. The 2014 season also featured several competitive SEC West teams. Both Mississippi schools ranked in the top 10 at different points that year.

In 2015, perhaps the weakest national championship-winning team under Saban had multiple tough wins in SEC play (and a loss to Ole Miss). While the 2015 team was not as flashy they were tough.

When I say the 2015 team was tough, here’s what I mean: 12th in offensive line yards, second in defensive line yards and second in opportunity rate (in d-line stats).

You might remember in 2015 a guy named Derek Henry who embodied physicality and toughness just a little bit. Remember Alabama’s quarterback that season? Jake Coker. Coker was a 6’5" and 230-pound quarterback who was not afraid to take a beating.

The 2015 Alabama team was not as flashy as the 2014 team or most of the other Saban-led Alabama teams, but the 2015 team embraced adversity early in that season and played with a tremendous amount of mental and physical toughness.

Alabama embodied this style of physical play for the next few years, along with Clemson, as both had two of the better offensive and defensive lines in the country. As a result, we saw Alabama versus Clemson in the College Football Playoff for four straight years. In 2016 and 2017, Alabama had two of its best overall defenses since 2011 and 2012 and had a guy named Jalen Hurts playing behind a great offensive line. Alabama was tough to beat, much less stay with. Notice the improvement in PPG differential in those years and then came a quarterback named Tua.

The Alabama passing attack became just as lethal, if not more lethal, as the running game in 2018 through 2020. Whether it was Tua, Hurts or Mac Jones, Bama could not be stopped. Just look back at Bama’s SEC PPG differential in those years.

The only thing that stopped Alabama from winning championships every one of those years were the 2018 Clemson and 2019 LSU juggernauts. Bama took full advantage in the COVID-19 year, despite one of the weaker offensive lines, at least statistically, in the Nick Saban tenure at Alabama (21st in offensive line yards). That was the second straight year of the Alabama offensive line statistically regressing.

In 2021, Alabama had two 1,000-yard receivers with Bryce Young behind center. However, the offensive line would once again regress (35th in line yards and 43rd in opportunity rate). The running game issues were a real thing for Bama in the latter portion of the 2021 season. (Six yards rushing against LSU, 3.1 yards per carry against Arkansas, 71 yards and 1.9 yards per carry against Auburn). Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, John Metchie III and Brian Robinson Jr. meant so much to the offense in 2021.

For 2022, Young was the only returnee of these four. As a result, the 2022 offense was not as efficient or explosive as past Alabama offenses under Saban. The receiving corps left much to be desired and the offensive line did not improve that much (34th in line yards). The only stat the offensive line was good at was specifically passing downs line yards because Young was good at avoiding sacks. For 2023, there is no Bryce Young and Young pretty much carried the offense last season and the stats show that to be true. Which leads me to the overall point in this article: I don’t think Alabama will be their usual self this season.

I don’t think the Alabama quarterback room is elite and, as of right now, I don’t think it’s at the level where it needs to be to reach Alabama expectations. The receivers were not great last year, despite having Bryce Young. None of the quarterbacks on Alabama’s roster right now are Bryce Young quality. Maybe the offensive line improves for Alabama. That would mean they completely buck the trend. They will need a significant improvement. Remember that running game I talked about that existed for Bama just a few years ago? Well, that same quality of a running game does not exist in Tuscaloosa at the moment.

With all of this being said, will Alabama have the same type of SEC PPG differential by the end of the season? I think there’s a good chance that they won’t. Yes, those are some high bars to clear, I get that but it also proves the point I’m trying to make: I’m not comparing Alabama to the rest of the country. That’s apples to oranges. I’m comparing them to recent Alabama teams.

There is a second part to this theory of Alabama potentially not having the same SEC PPG differential this season: The Crimson Tide’s schedule.

Of Alabama’s 36 SEC crossover opponents from the SEC East division since 2008, only seven of those teams finished those same seasons with winning SEC records. For so many years, Alabama took advantage of a down Tennessee team (this is a scheduled annual game right now) and then would play a Kentucky program almost annually before they became more competitive the last handful of seasons — of course, they haven’t played them as much lately. Both Tennessee and Kentucky are better than what they used to be.

LSU, coming off an SEC championship appearance and ranking in the top 20 and returning production, has high expectations this season and will be no slouch.

Meanwhile, the more manageable teams from the West division will mostly be on the road in hostile environments: cowbells in Starkville, College Station and the rivalry game against Auburn. Oh yeah, and why not start SEC play against a Lane Kiffin offense?

For those who question why I included the game against what was a (5-7) Auburn team last season, here’s why:

The Iron Bowl, especially when played at Auburn, is interesting no matter the level of either team. In 2013, Auburn won. In 2015, an Auburn team that finished one game above .500 gave what would be the national championship-winning Alabama team all they could handle in the game where the Crimson Tide did not even score a touchdown until late in the third quarter. In 2017, Auburn won. In 2019, Auburn won. In 2021, an Auburn team that finished with a losing record arguably should have beaten an Alabama team that ended up playing for the national championship but lost in four overtimes. Point being: Do not overlook the Iron Bowl, especially when it’s played on the Plains.

Combining the following things: This year’s team has questions at quarterback and in a receiving room that needs to step up big time. An offensive line that has not been as strong the last few seasons and a less experienced defense than last season — the roster has more questions than usual.

Alabama will also have a trickier schedule than normal. The middle of the SEC is improving, and the crossover opponents Tennessee and Kentucky are better than what they once were.

With all of the aforementioned information plus the fact Alabama will have one of the youngest teams in the Saban era this fall, don’t be surprised if Alabama does not have quite as high of an SEC PPG differential in 2023. Whether or not their record changes, I think my point here regarding SEC PPG differential will stand true.